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Guoxin Report
China and World Economic Development Report (2015)

Summary

》由国家信息中心组织专家队伍编撰,对2015年国内外经济发展环境、宏观经济发展趋势、经济运行中的主要矛盾、产业经济和区域经济热点、宏观调控政策取向进行了系统分析预测,内容涵盖了主要宏观经济领域、重点行业、经济地区及世界主要经济体,并对国际贸易、国际货币、国际金融、国际大宗商品、国际油价的走势进行了分析预测,目的是向各级政府部门、企业、科研院所和大专院校开展经济形势分析预测和政策分析提供较为系统、全面的参考资料。 The "China and World Economic Development Report (2015) " was compiled by a team of experts organized by the National Information Center. It reviews the economic development environment at home and abroad, macroeconomic development trends, major contradictions in economic operations, industrial and regional economic hotspots, and macroeconomic control in 2015 . Systematic analysis and prediction of policy orientation, covering major macroeconomic areas, key industries, economic regions and major economies in the world, and analysis and forecast of international trade, international currency, international finance, international commodities, and international oil prices The purpose is to provide more systematic and comprehensive reference materials for government departments, enterprises, scientific research institutes, and colleges and universities to carry out economic situation analysis and forecast and policy analysis.

年,我国不断创新宏观调控方式,国民经济整体运行较为平稳,增速有所放慢,但仍处在合理运行区间。 According to experts from the State Information Center, in 2014 , China continued to innovate macro-control methods. The overall operation of the national economy was relatively stable, and the growth rate slowed down, but it was still in a reasonable operating range. 比重比2012年降低0.1个百分点,失业率下降则在一定程度上与劳动参与率下降有关,未来经济可能进入低速增长的新常态;欧元区主要国家经济出现停滞甚至衰退,但欧元区的外围国家经济活力上升,这使欧元区总体经济保持温和复苏;日本大幅提高消费税抑制了消费和投资,安倍经济学对经济的刺激作用明显下降;主要新兴经济体经济总体仍显疲软,但印度经济明显复苏,巴西和俄罗斯经济则在衰退的边缘挣扎,欧洲新兴经济体经济形势也不容乐观,经济增长较好的波兰、匈牙利增幅在3%左右,其他国家则面临衰退的威胁。 Global economic growth continues to diverge: the U.S. economy continues to recover moderately, but the pace of recovery is clearly behind expectations. Although the manufacturing industry has returned to pre-crisis levels, it has not maintained an upward trend, and its added value as a percentage of GDP has decreased by 0.1 percentage point from 2012. To some extent, the decline in the unemployment rate is related to the decline in the labor force participation rate. In the future, the economy may enter a new normal state of low-speed growth. The economies of the major Eurozone countries have stagnated or even declined. The overall economy has maintained a moderate recovery; Japan ’s sharp increase in consumption tax has restrained consumption and investment, and the stimulus effect of Abenomics on the economy has decreased significantly. The economies of the major emerging economies are still weak overall, but the Indian economy has clearly recovered, and Brazil and Russia are in recession. The economic situation of emerging economies in Europe is not optimistic. Poland and Hungary, which have good economic growth, have increased by about 3% , and other countries are facing the threat of recession.

叠加的特殊阶段,下行压力较大,未来要平衡好经济增长、消化过剩产能、化解财政金融风险、稳定就业之间的关系,加快落实十八届三中全会精神,加快推进改革,特别要加快改革那些制约市场发挥作用的管理制度,让市场发挥资源配置的决定性作用,同时,在市场失灵的领域发挥好政府的调节作用。 The report believes that China's economic development is in a special stage of "three phases " superimposed, and the downward pressure is great. In the future, it is necessary to balance the relationship between economic growth, digest excess capacity, resolve fiscal and financial risks, and stabilize employment. In the spirit of the Plenary Session, we must accelerate the reform. In particular, we must speed up the reform of management systems that restrict the functioning of the market so that the market can play a decisive role in the allocation of resources. At the same time, the government should play a good role in regulating market failure. 年中国经济增速将继续有所回落,但可以保证中高速增长的新常态。 China's economic growth rate will continue to decline in 2015 , but it can guarantee a new normal of high-speed growth. 年中国经济将增长7% ,投资增速将略有放慢,消费增速将趋于平稳,净出口增速将有所回升,居民消费价格指数将上涨2%左右。 A combination of various factors predicts that China's economy will grow by 7% in 2015 , investment growth will slow slightly, consumption growth will stabilize, net export growth will pick up, and the consumer price index will rise by about 2% . .

年应坚持以改革统揽全局,全面推进各领域的改革进程,把稳增长、促改革、控风险结合起来,继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,保持适度的货币供应量,防止经济下行和财政金融风险相互强化,促进经济向新常态平稳过渡。 The report recommends that in 2015 , we should persist in overseeing the overall situation with reforms, comprehensively advance the reform process in various fields, combine stable growth, promote reform, and control risks, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a sound monetary policy, and maintain a modest supply of money. Measures to prevent economic downturn and fiscal and financial risks from reinforcing each other, and promote a smooth transition of the economy to the new normal.