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Analysis of China's New Economy Development Situation
Source: Economic Forecast Department of: Gao Hui Ching Time: 2018-03-28

I. Main Features of China's Economic and Social Development

、总体处于工业化后期向后工业化转型的发展阶段 1. Overall, it is in the development stage of late industrialization and post-industrial transformation.

The economic progress of a country and region from low income to high income is accompanied by the process of continuous industrialization. 其中工业化阶段又分为初期、中期、后期三个时期。 Based on the process of industrialization, economists divide the stage of economic development into three stages: pre-industrialization, industrialization, and post-industrialization . Among them, the industrialization stage is divided into three stages: early, middle, and late. The judgment of industrialization is based on standards such as per capita gross domestic product, tertiary industrial structure, employment structure, industrialization rate, and urbanization rate. Due to different measurement standards, the specific judgment conclusions must be different from time to time, so that on this issue there is currently no fully standardized and unified standard. In order to reduce controversy, when the conclusions of various measurement indicators are different, a common practice is to consider only the industrialization rate (referring to the proportion of industrial added value to the total GDP). The main reason for this approach is that in the process of world industrialization, there are obvious commonalities in the changes in the industrialization rates of various countries, and they have all experienced a development stage of first rise and then decline.

,为工业化初期阶段;工业化率达到40%-50% ,为工业化中期阶段;工业化率达到50%以上,为工业化后期阶段;当工业化率由最高峰逐步回落时,为向后工业化社会过渡时期。 Internationally, it is generally believed that the industrialization rate of a country or region reaches 20% -40% , which is the initial stage of industrialization; the industrialization rate reaches 40% -50% , which is the middle stage of industrialization; the industrialization rate reaches more than 50% , which is the later stage of industrialization; When the industrialization rate gradually drops from the highest peak, it is a period of transition to a post-industrial society.

各国工业化率峰值水平与年份 Table 1 Peak levels and years of industrialization rates in various countries

area

country

Peak level ( % )

years

(国际元) GDP per capita at that time (International dollars)

Europe and America

United States

39

1952

10414

United Kingdom

48

1957

8003

Germany

53

1960

7693

Japan

46

1970

9662

France

48

1960

7449

Italy

41

1964

7534

Portugal

38

1967

4586

Netherlands

44

1974

8190

average

44

 

8025

Latin America

Argentina

51

1976

8056

Colombia

38

1989

4748

Peru

43

1979

4146

Chile

49

1974

4972

Mexico

38

1987

5818

Venezuela

61

1990

8687

Brazil

46

1987

5256

average

47

 

5955

Asia and Africa

Malaysia

50

2006

9483

Philippines

39

1983

2410

Thailand

45

2006

8380

Indonesia

48

2008

4428

Korea

43

1991

9658

India

29

2006

2699

South Africa

48

1980

4375

Iran

60

1974

5778

China

49

2008

6725

average

46

 

5993

overall

average

46

 

6631

(Data source: Database of the Industrialization and Economic Growth Research Group of the Development Research Center of the State Council)

既是在上述样本中亚非国家的工业化率峰值,也是世界的工业化峰值,由此可见这一数值具有较大的参考价值。 As can be seen from the table above, 46% is both the peak of the industrialization rate of Asian and African countries in the above sample and the peak of the world's industrialization. This shows that this value has great reference value. 年度过了工业化率峰值(略高于世界平均水平),已经进入了工业化向后工业化的过渡时期。 The above data also show that China as a whole has passed the peak industrialization rate in 2008 (slightly higher than the world average) and has entered a transition period from industrialization to post-industrialization.

、城镇化进程相对工业化明显滞后 2. The relative industrialization of urbanization lags significantly behind

Urbanization and industrialization are twin engines driving economic development. Industrialization inevitably brings urbanization, and the agglomeration effect provided by urbanization in turn promotes the process of industrialization. The two come together and develop together. ·钱纳里等经济学家在研究各国经济结构转变的趋势时,曾概括了工业化发展阶段与城镇化水平之间的数量对比关系。 Economists such as H. Chanari have summarized the quantitative contrast between the stages of industrialization and the level of urbanization when studying the trend of economic structural changes in various countries.30%之间;在工业化的中期阶段,城镇化率在30%70%之间;在工业化的后期阶段,城镇化率一般在70%80%之间;后工业社会时期,城镇化率在80%以上。 It is generally believed that the urbanization rate is between 10% and 30% in the early stages of industrialization; the urbanization rate is between 30% and 70% in the middle stages of industrialization; Between 70% and 80% ; in the post-industrial society, the urbanization rate is above 80% .

Based on the work of Western scholars and domestic practice, domestic scholars have also carried out a number of studies on the coordinated advancement between industrialization and urbanization, and carried out relevant quantitative analysis. Among them, Chen Jiagui's research (see the table below) is highly representative.

工业化进程中各主要经济指标变化 Table 2 Changes in Main Economic Indicators in the Process of Industrialization

Basic indicators

Pre-industrial stage ( 1 )

Industrialization stage

Post-industrialization stage ( 5 )

Early industrialization ( 2 )

Mid-industrialization ( 3 )

Late industrialization ( 4 )

、人均 GDP (经济发展水平) 1. GDP per capita (level of economic development)

 

 

 

 

 

1 1964 年美元 ( 1 ) 1964 dollars

100-200

200-400

400-800

800-1500

以上 1500 or more

1996年美元 ( 2 ) 1996 US dollars

620-1240

1240-2480

2480-4960

4960-9300

以上 9300 or more

1995年美元 ( 3 ) 1995 US dollars

610-1220

1240-2480

2480-4960

4960-9300

以上 9300 or more

2000年美元 ( 4 ) 2000 USD

660-1320

1320-2640

2640-5280

5280-9910

以上 9910 or more

2002年美元 ( 5 ) 2002 dollars

680-1360

1360-2730

2730-5460

5460-10200

以上 10200 or more

2004年美元 ( 6 ) 2004 USD

720-1440

1440-2880

2880-5760

5760-10810

以上 10810 or more

、三次产业产值结构(产业结构) 2. Tertiary industry output value structure (industrial structure)

> I A > I

> 20%, A< I A > 20% and A < I

< 20%,I > S A < 20%, I > S

< 10%,I > S A < 10%, I > S

< 10%,I < S A < 10%, I < S

制造业增加值占总商品增加值比例(工业结构) 3. Proportion of value added of manufacturing industry to total value added of goods (industrial structure)

以下 20% or less

40% 20 40%

50% 40 50%

60% 50 60%

以上 Over 60%

、人口城市化率(空间结构) 4. Population urbanization rate (spatial structure)

以下 30% or less

50% 30 50%

60% 50 60%

75% 60 75%

以上 75% or more

、第一产业就业人员占比(就业结构) 5. Proportion of employment in the primary industry (employment structure)

以上 Over 60%

60% 45 60%

45% 30 45%

30% 10 30%

以下 10% or less

IS分别代表第一、第二和第三产业增加值在GDP中所占的比重 Among them: A , I , S represent the proportion of the added value of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in GDP , respectively

The urbanization rate refers to the proportion of the total resident population of a country or region in the total population of that country or region. 年为57.4% ,相对工业化进程明显偏低。 Measured by the resident population, China's urbanization rate was 57.4% in 2016 , which is significantly lower than the industrialization process.

、生产性服务业是经济持续发展的最大短板 3. Productive service industry is the biggest shortcoming of sustainable economic development

In the late stage of industrialization, as the scale of agriculture and manufacturing industry gradually shrank, the proportion of service industry continued to rise, and eventually surpassed the secondary industry to become the main industry of the national economy. 的占比基本上都在60%70%之间。 At present, the proportion of service industries in developed countries in GDP is basically between 60% and 70% . 年我国第三产业增加值占GDP的比重达到51.6% ,与发达国家74%的平均水平相距甚远,与中等收入国家53%的平均水平也有所不如。 In 2016 , China ’s tertiary industry added value accounted for 51.6% of GDP , far from the average level of 74% in developed countries, and not as good as the average level of 53% in middle-income countries.

In addition to the low urbanization in our country's service industry, which is directly caused by the low scale of the service industry, it is mainly caused by insufficient development of productive services. In the post-industrial and post-industrial transition stages, the increasing proportion of the service industry is a common phenomenon. However, this improvement is mainly driven by the life service industry or the productive service industry, which will lead to different development results. Only when the productive services industry becomes the main driving force, the economy after the post-industrialization period has a sustainable development momentum.

The adverse effects of underdeveloped productive services are mainly as follows: First, after the peak of the industrialization rate, the manufacturing industry has entered a stage of transformation and upgrading, and it will gradually merge from simple product production enterprises to production services. The transformation of large-scale enterprises and the underdevelopment of productive services have directly affected the sustainable development of manufacturing. Second, after the peak of the industrialization rate, the productive service industry will increasingly become the pillar industry of the economy and the leading industry participating in regional competition. Underdeveloped productive services will directly affect the city's economic strength and competitiveness. Third, the underdevelopment of the productive service industry will hinder the integrated development model of production and city, and the urbanization process will inevitably slow down or even retrogress, which will adversely affect the development of the entire economy (including the productive service industry).

Analysis of China's new economic development environment in the next five to ten years

、有利条件 1. Favorable conditions

)国内即将迎来新经济浪潮 ( 1 ) The new economy is about to usher in the country

The outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis announced the collapse of the old model of the global economy, and countries have also begun a new round of economic innovation and development models of exploration. Against this background, our government has clearly realized that the domestic economy has entered a new normal without human will: the growth rate has shifted from high-speed to medium-high speed, and the development mode has shifted from scale-speed to extensive growth to quality-efficiency. Intensive growth, the structure shifted from incremental capacity expansion to in-depth adjustment of stock adjustment and coexistence of optimal incremental growth. After years of exploration and conclusion, China has basically formed a set of ideas, strategies and policy frameworks that actively adapt to and lead the new normal. The development of a new economy has become the only way to overcome the middle income trap and achieve sustainable and healthy economic development.

China's new economy is about to usher in a wave of rapid development. The reasons are as follows: First, governments at all levels attach great importance to providing a strong impetus for the development of the new economy. 年中央就明确提出,打造大众创业、万众创新,要鼓励大众创业者应用新技术、开发新产品、创造新需求,培育新市场、打造新业态,为经济发展注入源源不断的动力和活力。 As early as 2015 , the central government made it clear that to create mass entrepreneurship and innovation, it is necessary to encourage mass entrepreneurs to apply new technologies, develop new products, create new demand, cultivate new markets, create new formats, and inject a steady stream of momentum and vitality. To this end, the central government and various ministries and commissions have issued hundreds of corresponding encouragement and support policies, and local governments have also supported and developed new economic development based on innovation. Over time, the effects of these policies will become more apparent. Second, a large number of new technologies have emerged, laying an objective foundation for the rapid development of the new economy. The widespread penetration of next-generation information technology, biotechnology, new materials technology, and new energy technologies has driven a collective technological revolution characterized by green, smart, and ubiquitous in almost all fields. The emergence of new technologies and a large number of new markets has spawned new business models and promoted changes in current business models. The large-scale emergence of new business models will in turn trigger and form new formats and new industries. Third, the rapid growth of some new economic industries has produced a good demonstration effect, which is conducive to attracting social resources to the new economy. After entering the new normal state of the economy, economic development has shown two distinct states. On the one hand, traditional industries have fallen into a sluggish state of development. On the other hand, some new economic industries such as online shopping and logistics and express delivery have experienced explosive growth. This sharp contrast will inevitably attract more and more social resources from the traditional economy to the new economy.

)国内产业迁移为新经济带来机遇 ( 2 ) Domestic industry migration brings opportunities to the new economy

Affected by many factors such as declining international demand and rising costs of production factors, the industry in the eastern region has continued to shift to the central and western regions. This trend not only drives the economic growth of the central and western regions and promotes the coordinated development of the regional economy, but also provides favorable support for the development of the new economy. First of all, after some industries move out of the eastern region, in order to maintain sustained economic growth, people must change their development thinking and develop new industries and formats. At the same time, the resources deposited in the traditional industries in the past can be used to develop a large number of new economies. Secondly, for the Midwest, an important source of the new economy is the upgrading and transformation of the traditional economy by new technologies, new models, and new formats. After the traditional industries that have lost competitiveness in the eastern region migrate to the central and western regions where domestic demand grows rapidly and the cost of production factors is relatively low, not only can they gain market survival space again, but they can also use this late-moving advantage to integrate with the new economy and form New competitive advantages. In addition, the development of the new economy requires innovative thinking and the support of corresponding talents, funds and information. With the relocation of industries in the eastern region, the idea of encouraging innovation in the eastern region is easier to be implemented in the central and western regions. In the past, the resources of research and development, information, and funds for improving the support of the eastern region's industries will also be greater in the industrial migration Migration took place in the central and western regions.

、不利条件 2.Adverse conditions

)新经济缺乏可复制模式借鉴 ( 1 ) The new economy lacks a replicable model for reference

The new economy is a newly emerging thing. Even from a global perspective, it still belongs to the early stage of development. So far, there has not been an industrial system that has relatively stable new economy. It is difficult to clearly determine which new products have long-term market prospects, which new formats are only transition formats, and which new technologies have core competitiveness. This makes the development of the new economy more a matter of self-exploration than a direct borrowing model.

The new economy, which is the economy under the new normal, must follow the laws of economic development. The economic and social development stages of different regions are different, the regional position and natural endowments are different, and the development of the new economy must have its own characteristics. All localities need to formulate new economic development orientations, strategies, and paths according to local conditions. In fact, this has obviously increased the difficulty of developing a new economy everywhere.

)传统发展模式惯性巨大 ( 2 ) Traditional development model has huge inertia

After decades of rapid development, China's traditional industry is relatively large. The scale of the huge economy means that the development of existing models has a large inertia. The development of a new economy requires a lot of reforms and transformations and involves a wide range of areas, which necessarily means that a large amount of human and material resources need to be invested and a long time required for transformation. In addition, the traditional development concepts and thinking modes that have been formed for a long time are relatively difficult to change, which may cause the new economy to encounter various ideological and cultural and social rules in the process of development, and to overcome this traditional model. Inertia requires larger costs.

Analysis of the development trend of China's new economy in the future

、传统产业与新经济加速融合 1. Accelerated integration of traditional industries and the new economy

Except for new industries in the new economy, most new technologies, new models, and new formats are based on the integration with traditional industries. It can be said that without organic integration with traditional industries, it is difficult for the new economy to develop on a large scale in the short term; without integration with the new economy, traditional industries have no future.

At present and for a period of time, the accelerated integration of traditional industries and the new economy will be the general trend. First, under the new normal, the imitative and wave-like consumption phase has basically ended, and personalized and diversified consumption has gradually become the mainstream. Only the new economy The reformed industry in China has the characteristics of intelligence and flexibility, so that it can effectively combine economies of scale and personalized products and services, and at the same time adapt to the new characteristics of upgrading the consumption structure; the second is to adapt to the transformation of development methods and the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing Objective requirements. At present, China's production costs have risen significantly. Through integration with the new economy, it is possible to improve the operating efficiency of manufacturing industries, reduce operating costs, and form new ones through changes in internal organizational structure and innovation in production, operation, and financing models, as well as collaboration between enterprises and the outside world. Format and new competitiveness.

、现代服务业发展进入快行道 2. The development of modern service industry has entered the fast track

The gradual transformation of the economic structure from industry-led to service-oriented is an inevitable rule of economic development in the post-industrial period. In the transition period from industrialization to post-industrialization, the demand for productive services is constantly evolving, and the demand for consumer services is expanding rapidly, which will jointly promote the accelerated development of the service industry. China's comprehensive economic strength and solid industrial foundation provide strong support for the evolution of the division of labor in the service industry. Especially with the popularization of new technologies such as the Internet, service applications and innovation based on big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things are becoming increasingly active. It provides huge space for the development of modern service industry. The Chinese government has formulated a modern service industry development plan and related supporting policies. Local governments have also vigorously promoted the development of major projects and key enterprises in the service industry. With the concerted efforts of many parties, the development of the modern service industry is bound to enter the fast track.

、新兴战略性产业方兴未艾 3. Emerging strategic industries are in the ascendant

To maintain sustained and healthy development of our economy, we must build on the sustained and healthy development of industry. Although the proportion of industry will gradually shrink, its cornerstone role cannot be replaced. There are two main trends in the future: first, the integration of traditional industries and the new economy, and a new vitality; the continued development of emerging strategic industries, the improvement of the entire economic structure, the formation of market competitiveness in the mid-to-high-end industry chain, and gradually becoming New leading industries.

In order to gain a relatively favorable position in the new round of industrial division and layout in the future, localities have chosen new energy vehicles, new energy industries, high-end equipment manufacturing, biomedicine, electronic information, new materials and other emerging industries as their own comparative advantages. Focus on supporting development targets, while a large number of related major projects are under construction. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China's strategic emerging industries will reach a new level as these projects reach capacity.