At present, an important feature of China's economic operation is the acceleration of structural adjustment and the increasing differentiation of industries. From a macroeconomic perspective, the modern service industry is developing rapidly, new industries and new formats are racing to bloom, and traditional manufacturing is shrinking. From the perspective of industry, the development of high-tech manufacturing industry is good. Industrial differentiation is an objective law of economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to follow the trend of industrial differentiation, accelerate supply-side structural reforms, use the market forcing mechanism to promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and promote stable and sustainable economic development.
、第三产业成为经济增长和吸纳就业的第一主力 1. The tertiary industry has become the main force for economic growth and employment
年以来，第二、第三产业增长速度互有高低，差距不大，但从2012年起，第三产业首次超过第二产业，之后比重不断提高， 2016年达到51.6% 。 From the perspective of output value, since 2000 , the growth rates of the secondary and tertiary industries have been high and low, and the gap is not large. However, since 2012 , the tertiary industry has surpassed the secondary industry for the first time, and the proportion has continued to increase since then . . — 2015年，我国第三产业增加值增速分别为8.3% 、 7.8% 、 8.3%和7.8% 。 The growth rate continues to be higher than that of the secondary industry. From 2013 to 2015 , China's tertiary industry added value growth rates were 8.3% , 7.8% , 8.3%, and 7.8%, respectively .
：三次产业增加值及增速（亿元， % ） Figure 1 : Value added and growth rate of the three industries ( 100 million yuan, % )
年，我国服务业就业人口占全部就业人口的比重达到23.0% ，超过第二产业； 2011年，比重上升至35.7% ，超过第一产业，成为吸纳就业最多的产业。 From the perspective of employment structure, in 1994 , the proportion of employed people in the service industry in China's total employment population reached 23.0% , surpassing the secondary industry; in 2011 , the proportion rose to 35.7% , surpassing the primary industry, and became the industry with the most employment. 年开始，第一、第二产业就业人员均呈负增长态势，新增就业人员可以说基本为第三产业所吸纳，第三产业成为就业的蓄水池。 Especially since 2013 , the employment of the primary and secondary industries has shown a negative growth trend. New employment can be said to be basically absorbed by the tertiary industry, which has become a reservoir for employment.
The acceleration of service economy development is the general law of national modernization, and the process of economic development must accompany the evolution of industrial structure. It is generally believed that as the per capita national income continues to increase, the labor force is sequentially shifted from the primary industry to the secondary industry and then to the tertiary industry, and the leading force of economic development has evolved from agriculture to industry and then upgraded to the service industry. General law of supply structure evolution. With the increase of the degree of specialization of the manufacturing industry and the deepening of the social division of labor, the demand for productive services has continued to evolve; after the income level has increased, the demand for consumer services has expanded dramatically, and jointly promoted the accelerated development of the service industry. From international experience, most developed countries have experienced a major transition from industry-led to service-led. 年前后，德国和日本发生在1970年前后，韩国发生在1990年左右。 The United States transitioned around 1950 , Germany and Japan occurred around 1970 , and South Korea occurred around 1990 . 比重开始超过第二产业，工业增加值占国内生产总值比重见顶回落，而服务业占比保持较快上升。 The main manifestation of this transformation is that the proportion of the added value of the tertiary industry to GDP has begun to exceed that of the secondary industry, the proportion of the value added of industry to GDP has peaked, and the proportion of the service industry has maintained a rapid rise. — 1981年服务业占比年均提高0.81个百分点，而第二产业比重年均下降0.72个百分点；日本1969 — 1977年服务业占比年均提高0.69个百分点，而第二产业比重年均下降0.35个百分点；韩国1989 — 1995年服务业占比年均提高0.62个百分点，而第二产业占比年均仅提高0.01个百分点。 For example, Germany's service industry accounted for an average annual increase of 0.81 percentage points from 1971 to 1981 , while the secondary industry's share decreased by 0.72 percentage points per year; Japan's 1969-1977 service industry accounted for an average annual increase of 0.69 percentage points, and the secondary industry The proportion of the average annual decline of 0.35 percentage points; South Korea's service industry's share of the average increase of 0.62 percentage points from 1989 to 1995 , while the secondary industry's share of the average annual increase of only 0.01 percentage points.
：三次产业就业人员及增速图（万人， % ） Figure 2 : Employment and growth rate of the three industries (10,000 people, % )
年人均国内生产总值达到8000美元左右，正处于中等偏上收入向高收入迈进的关键阶段，经济发展已进入服务业较快发展的新阶段。 China's economic aggregate has steadily ranked second in the world. In 2015 , the per capita GDP reached about 8,000 US dollars. It is at a critical stage when upper-middle incomes are moving towards high incomes. Economic development has entered a new stage of rapid development of the service industry. Although the tertiary industry has become China's largest industry, from the perspective of international comparison and China's national conditions, the development level of the tertiary industry is still relatively low, and its proportion in economic development is still low. The main manifestations are relatively lagging development, weak international competitiveness, and uneven regional development. Under the new normal economy, to maintain stable economic development, it is necessary to take measures to accelerate the development of the tertiary industry:
First, comprehensively deepen reforms and release development potential. In particular, it is necessary to actively open the market, break industry monopolies, encourage fair competition, strengthen market supervision, and improve government regulations. The second is to actively and steadily promote urbanization and promote positive interaction between urbanization and the development of the tertiary industry. The third is to deepen the division of labor and cooperation and promote the integration of the tertiary industry and manufacturing. The fourth is to continuously upgrade the existing tertiary industry, improve international competitiveness, strive to integrate with the international market at an early date, strengthen service exports, and vigorously increase the share of service trade in the international market.
、正确认识服务业比重的变化 2. Correctly understand the changes in the proportion of the service industry
First, the proportion of the service industry is not as high as possible, nor is it as fast as possible. 在2015年的一篇论文中指出，一些拉美国家未能充分利用完整的工业化促进经济增长，在人均收入较低的水平上，第二产业比重就达到了峰值，导致了经济增长停滞，甚至进入中等收入陷阱。 Professor Dani Rodrik of Princeton University pointed out in a 2015 paper that some Latin American countries failed to make full use of complete industrialization to promote economic growth. At a low level of per capita income, the proportion of the secondary industry reached a peak, leading to Economic growth has stagnated and even entered the middle income trap. We must be soberly aware that in addition to the factors of the service industry's own development, the decline in the growth rate of the added value of the secondary industry caused by shrinking external market demand, reindustrialization in European and American countries, rising factor costs, and insufficient supply of high-quality demand, It is also an important reason for the relatively rising proportion of China's service industry. The service industry, especially the modern productive service industry, is an important force to promote the optimization and upgrading of the secondary industry, especially the manufacturing industry. If the proportion of the secondary industry declines too quickly in a short period of time, this precisely reflects the support of the service industry for the transformation of the real economy. Is insufficient.
Second, we must pay more attention to upgrading the internal structure of the service industry. The service industry is not synonymous with high-end industries. The speed and quality of future economic growth will largely depend on the internal upgrade of the service industry. For labor-intensive service industries such as catering and housekeeping, the increase in the proportion of added value depends more on the growth of relative prices. The short-term effect on economic growth will be obvious, but the long-term effect will be weakened. For capital-intensive service industries such as finance and real estate, although it has played a significant role in driving economic growth in recent years, its statistical methods do not consider the impact of risk factors such as non-performing loans and asset price fluctuations on future growth, which is easily overestimated. Technology-intensive service industries such as software and information, scientific research and design, which are the products of the division of labor in the advanced manufacturing process, are the fastest-growing sectors in the service industry and the potential to promote long-term economic growth. Changes can better reflect the optimization of the internal structure of the service industry.
Third, we must recognize the supporting role of the manufacturing industry in the development of the service industry. The increase in productivity and labor income brought about by the transformation and upgrading within the manufacturing industry constitutes an important driving force for the development of the service industry in terms of supply and demand. 等人2012年的研究指出，即使是纽约、伦敦和东京等以服务业为支撑的世界级城市，也因过早去工业化错过了从新兴工业中获利的机会，在金融危机中暴露出产业单一化和实体经济空心化的弊端。 A 2012 study by the World Bank Shahid Yusuf and others pointed out that even world-class cities supported by service industries such as New York, London, and Tokyo have missed opportunities to profit from emerging industries due to premature deindustrialization. The shortcomings of the singularization of the industry and the hollowing out of the real economy are exposed. In the context of the accelerated implementation of re-industrialization in developed countries and the acceleration of industrialization in developing countries, we should promote institutional reforms to guide the optimization of resources allocation in the real economy, give play to comparative advantages, and stabilize the development of manufacturing industries. Upgrade promotes the development of modern productive service industry, and realizes the high-end of the service industry on the basis of promoting industrial modernization.
Fourth, an excessively rapid increase in the proportion of the service industry may not be conducive to improving income distribution. Financial, legal, accounting and other high-end service industries can certainly create high-income jobs, but this is only for high-educated people. For middle-aged workers in the secondary industry, retraining is difficult, and human capital accumulation requires a process. If the industry adjusts too quickly, with the relatively stable human capital structure, many blue-collar workers and low-end white-collar workers in the manufacturing industry will face the threat of unemployment, or switch to low-end low-end service industries.
Fifth, the rapid rise in the proportion of the service industry can easily lead to economic stall. When the growth rate of the secondary industry drops too quickly, and the emerging service industries with higher production efficiency cannot become the leading industry in a short period of time, resources will be allocated more to the traditional service industries with lower efficiency, resulting in economic slowdown. 年来，在美国服务业比重提高超过1个百分点的六个年份中，其经济增长速度无一例外都比上年出现了下滑。 In the past 30 years, in the six years in which the proportion of the US service industry has increased by more than 1 percentage point, its economic growth rate has, invariably, decreased compared to the previous year. 个百分点时，各国当年的经济增速有较大的概率出现下滑。 Investigating the relationship between the “promotion of service industry” and “economic growth and changes in the previous year” in the four major economies of the United States, Japan, Germany, and France, the two showed a significant negative correlation, especially when the proportion of service industry increased When the speed exceeds 1 percentage point, there is a greater probability that the economic growth of each country will decline.
From the international experience, the significance of industrial stability cannot be ignored. 左右。 While Japan, South Korea and other economies have successfully entered the ranks of high-income countries and crossed the middle-income trap, although the proportion of services has steadily increased and the proportion of agriculture has declined year by year, the industrial proportion has remained basically at about 40% . 结构变动上都有一个共同的特点，那就是在人均GDP达到1万美元的关键期时，工业占比下降过快，形成了所谓的第二产业空洞，导致了经济发展后继乏力。 Unlike Japan and South Korea, some Latin American countries fall into the middle-income trap, and their GDP structure changes have a common feature, that is, when the per capita GDP reaches a critical period of 10,000 US dollars, the industrial share declines too quickly, forming The so-called hollowness of the secondary industry has led to weak economic development. 到7%这么一个经济增速的话，放眼全球找不出任何一个国家仅仅依靠消费依靠服务业可以达到那么高的增速，美国的服务业占美国增长水平3%左右。 In particular, if an economy of a country wants to maintain an economic growth rate of 6% to 7% , if we look at the world, we can't find any country that can rely on consumption and service industries to achieve such a high growth rate. The US growth level is about 3% . If it is to grow steadily, the development of the tertiary industry must not come at the expense of the decline of the secondary industry. The tertiary industry needs to continue to develop, and the secondary industry must also make a difference.
Especially in the current situation where the labor productivity and investment efficiency coefficient of the tertiary industry are lower than those of the secondary industry, from the perspective of improving overall investment efficiency and maintaining stable economic development, do not rush to emphasize "three" and "two".
分主要行业的投资效益系数及分不同阶段平均增速（ % ） Table 1 Investment benefit coefficient of major industries and average growth rate in different stages ( % )
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation, warehousing and postal services
Accommodation and Catering
年价格计算 Note: Calculated at 2010 prices
、劳动生产率及平均增速（万元/人， % ） Table 2 Labor productivity and average growth rate (10,000 yuan / person, % )
年价格计算 Note: Calculated at 2010 prices
、高技术行业发展优势明显 3. The development advantages of the high-tech industry are obvious
年，新兴产业成为世界各国应对全球经济复苏缓慢、实现可持续发展的共同选择。 In 2015 , emerging industries became a common choice for countries around the world to respond to the slow global economic recovery and achieve sustainable development. The United States uses new energy to drive a new industry pattern, the European Union works closely through the combination of emerging industries and traditional industries, Japan adopts a sustainable and efficient industrial policy to guide long-term demand and future industrial layout, South Korea pushes the big data industry to drive innovation and entrepreneurship, and Brazil uses bioenergy Industry optimizes traditional superior agriculture.
、规上工业企业和高技术产业情况（ % ） Table 3 Status of industrial enterprises and high-tech industries on regulations ( % )
个） Number of enterprises
亿元) Revenue from main operations ( 100 million yuan )
亿元) Profit ( 100 million yuan )
”新经济领域，区域集聚发展态势明显，企业国际竞争力不断提升，有利于产业发展的政策环境不断优化，国家加快在集成电路、智能制造、新能源汽车等产业的布局，新一代信息技术、高端装备制造等产业将进入快速发展期。 China is in a critical period of the transformation of the driving force for economic growth. Strategic emerging industries are increasingly supporting economic development, and their independent innovation capabilities have been significantly enhanced. This has helped to form a "Internet + " new economic field. Regional agglomeration development is obvious, and companies' international competitiveness With continuous improvement, the policy environment conducive to industrial development is continuously optimized. The country has accelerated its layout in industries such as integrated circuits, intelligent manufacturing, and new energy vehicles. Industries such as new-generation information technology and high-end equipment manufacturing will enter a period of rapid development. Numerous new growth points for strategic emerging industries are being formed, and the growth momentum is good. 年， 613家战略性新兴产业企业其营收总额同比增长25.3% ， 是上市公司整体增速的近2倍；利润同比增长21.2% ，高出上市公司总体增速8.6个百分点。 In 2015 , the total revenue of 613 strategic emerging industry companies increased by 25.3% year-on-year, which is nearly double the overall growth rate of listed companies; profits increased by 21.2% year-on-year, which was 8.6 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of listed companies. 年1-10月份，高技术产业和装备制造业增加值同比分别增长10.5%和10.1% ，增速分别比规模以上工业快4.4和4.0个百分点。 From January to October 2016 , the added value of high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industries increased by 10.5% and 10.1% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rates were 4.4 and 4.0 percentage points faster than those of industries above designated size. ，增速快于全部投资7.8个百分点。 The investment in high-tech industries increased by 16.1% year-on-year, which was faster than the total investment by 7.8 percentage points.
数据显示，高技术产业已经表现出明显的优势，意味着未来将吸引越来越多的资本进入。 Capital has a profit-seeking feature. The data in Table 3 shows that the high-tech industry has shown obvious advantages, which means that more and more capital will be introduced in the future. In the future, it is necessary to deepen reforms in an all-round way, bring the market to play a decisive role in the allocation of resources, gradually realize the free flow of factors, and factor prices are mainly determined by the market to form a unified and open market system. The government does not directly intervene in the specific activities of the industry, and focuses on maintaining macro policy stability, ensuring fair competition, strengthening market supervision, maintaining market order, promoting sustainable development, and making up for market failures. The government's efforts to create an industrial development environment are mainly to strengthen the construction of policies, laws and infrastructure, support the building of basic capabilities such as education, research and development, talent, and information, and guide the industry to grasp the development trend.