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Financial opportunities for consumer-led economic growth
Source: Ministry of Economic Forecast: Tony Li Time: 2018-03-29

年的48.5%提高到2015年的51.6%China's consumption rate has increased year by year, from 48.5% in 2010 to 51.6% in 2015 . 年消费对GDP增长的贡献率达59.9% ,消费成为拉动我国经济增长的主力。 Consumption contributed 59.9% of GDP growth in 2015 , and consumption has become the main force driving China's economic growth. The rise of the consumption-led economy will have a profound impact on China's economic development and will also bring new space for China's financial development.

、消费潜力全面释放,对经济增长拉动占据主导 1. Consumption potential has been fully released, leading the economic growth

年我国经济进入“新常态”以来,这一增长模式出现拐点性变化。 China's original growth model has the prominent characteristics of investment-led, but since China's economy entered the "new normal" in 2011 , this growth model has undergone inflectional changes. 年的增长23.8% ,大幅下滑至2016年增长8.1% ,累计下降15.7个百分点。 The growth rate of urban fixed asset investment slowed down significantly, from 23.8% in 2011 to 8.1% in 2016 , a cumulative decline of 15.7 percentage points. 年的17.1%回落至10.4% ,累计回落6.7个百分点。 In contrast, consumer demand is still in the lane of rapid development, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has fallen from 17.1% in 2011 to 10.4% , a cumulative decline of 6.7 percentage points. 名义增速,促使消费率超过投资率,消费取代投资成为拉动经济增长的首要引擎。 Consumption growth is relatively stable compared to investment growth, and faster than the nominal GDP growth rate over the same period, prompting the consumption rate to exceed the investment rate. Consumption instead of investment has become the primary engine of economic growth. 年,消费对GDP增长的贡献率为66.4% ,分别比2013年、 2014年提高18.2个和14.8个百分点,比2001-2012年平均贡献率高16.0个百分点。 In 2015 , the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth was 66.4% , an increase of 18.2 and 14.8 percentage points from 2013 and 2014 , and an average contribution rate of 16.0 percentage points from 2001 to 2012 . 年前三季度,消费对GDP增长的累计同比贡献率为71%In the first three quarters of 2016 , the cumulative year-on-year contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth was 71% .

China has entered a new stage of consumption-led economic growth, and the general trend of the full release of consumption potential is taking shape. 海南)改革发展研究院课题组( 2015 )对我国“十三五”时期消费增长前景的估算结果, 20152020年社会消费品零售总额年均实际增长将达到8%2020年我国居民消费规模将达到45.23万亿元,最终消费率有望提高到55%60% ,居民消费率提高到45%50% ,消费贡献率稳定在40%以上。 China ( Hainan ) Research Institute of Reform and Development ( 2015 ) estimates China ’s consumption growth prospects during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period. The average annual real growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods will reach 8% between 2015 and 2020. The scale will reach 45.23 trillion yuan, the final consumption rate is expected to increase to 55% to 60% , the consumption rate of residents will increase to 45% to 50% , and the consumption contribution rate will stabilize above 40% .

、消费结构加快升级,新兴消费增长点培育壮大 2. Accelerating the upgrade of the consumption structure and fostering the growth of emerging consumption growth points

In recent years, China's consumption upgrading potential has been continuously released, showing obvious trend changes such as the enhancement of consumption levels, changes in consumption patterns, innovation of consumer formats, and changes in consumption concepts and behaviors. Health care consumption by the elderly, information consumption, tourism and leisure consumption, education, culture and sports Emerging consumption growth points such as consumption are being cultivated and expanded.

The accelerated upgrading of the consumption structure is reflected in the following aspects: First, the consumption level has changed from a developmental type to an enjoyment type. 超过3000美元是居民消费结构发生转变的重要时期,吃穿住等生存型消费减少,发展型、享受型的服务性消费增加。 According to international experience, the per capita GDP of more than 3,000 US dollars is an important period for the transformation of residents' consumption structure. Survival consumption such as food, clothing and housing has decreased, and service consumption for development and enjoyment has increased. 年,我国人均交通通信、教育文化娱乐、医疗保健等服务消费支出比重分别由12.3%10.6%6.9%提高到13.3%11.0%7.4%2015年,人均滋补保健品和保健器具支出比2013年增长45.8% ,年均增长20.7%From 2013 to 2015 , China ’s per capita expenditure on services such as transportation, communications, education, culture, entertainment, and health care increased from 12.3% , 10.6%, and 6.9% to 13.3% , 11.0%, and 7.4% . In 2015 , per capita supplements and health supplements Expenditure on health appliances increased 45.8% over 2013 , with an average annual increase of 20.7% .

消费形态由物质型向服务型转变。 The second is the shift from consumption to service. 居民消费对象最终会从商品走向服务。 According to the law of consumption upgrading , residents' consumption objects will eventually shift from commodities to services. In recent years, the consumption of information, tourism, medical care, sports, housekeeping and other services has developed rapidly. 年国内旅游44.4亿人次,同比增长11%;国内旅游总收入3.9万亿元,同比增长14% ;全国居民人均医疗保健、交通通信、教育支出分别增长12.3%12.0%11.2% ,人均体育健身活动支出增长13.7% ,人均用于家政服务的支出增长24.7%In 2016 , domestic tourism was 4.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%; total domestic tourism revenue was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14% ; national per capita expenditure on medical care, transportation, and education increased by 12.3% , 12.0%, and 11.2% , per capita Expenditure on sports and fitness activities increased by 13.7% , and per capita expenditures on housekeeping services increased by 24.7% .

消费方式由线下向线上线下融合转变。 The third is the change in consumption mode from offline to online and offline integration. The advent of the mass consumer society is superimposed with the booming development of the Internet. People ’s consumption patterns have shifted from “offline” to “online”. The combination of online and offline has become an important feature of consumption in the information age. 年全国网上零售额为5.16万亿元,同比增长26.2% ,其中,实物商品网络销售交易额近4.2万亿元,占同期社会消费品零售总额逾八分之一。 In 2016 , online retail sales nationwide was 5.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.2% . Among them, the physical merchandise online sales transaction value was nearly 4.2 trillion yuan, accounting for more than one-eighth of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period.

消费理念和行为从以往的大规模、同质化、普及型的消费,向差异化、多元化、高品质的新消费转型,进入了“从量到质”、“从有到好”、“求新求特”的新阶段。 Fourth, the consumption concept and behavior have changed from the previous large-scale, homogeneous and popular consumption to a new, differentiated, diversified, and high-quality consumption, and entered into "quantity-to-quality" and "from-to-good" The new stage of "newness and speciality". For example, with the improvement of living standards, residents pay more attention to safety and health to food consumption, and pay more attention to experience and quality to the consumption of daily necessities and durable goods.

With the acceleration of the upgrading of consumption structure, new growth points such as old-age housekeeping consumption, sports fitness consumption, tourism and leisure consumption, education and cultural consumption, information and online consumption have also begun to emerge, and there is huge room for future development. 年,体育消费总规模达1.5万亿元。 For example, the "13th Five-Year Plan for Sports Development" issued by the State General Administration of Sports proposes that by 2020 , the total scale of sports consumption will reach 1.5 trillion yuan. 年,境内旅游总消费额达到5.5万亿元。 The "Several Opinions on Promoting the Reform and Development of Tourism" issued by the State Council states that by 2020 , the total domestic tourism consumption will reach 5.5 trillion yuan. 年和2025年,我国信息消费总量分别要达到6万亿元和12万亿。 The Outline of the National Information Development Strategy issued by the General Office of the State Council proposes that by 2020 and 2025 , China's total information consumption will reach 6 trillion yuan and 12 trillion yuan, respectively. 万亿元,而实际文化消费规模仅超过1万亿元,存在着3.7万亿元的文化消费缺口。 In addition, statistics show that the potential market size of cultural consumption in China is about 4.7 trillion yuan, while the actual cultural consumption scale is only over 1 trillion yuan, and there is a cultural consumption gap of 3.7 trillion yuan. 部委联合发布的《国内贸易流通“十三五”发展规划》提出,到2020年中国网上零售额达到9.6万亿元。 The "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Domestic Trade Circulation" jointly issued by 10 ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Commerce proposes that China's online retail sales will reach 9.6 trillion yuan by 2020 .

、消费供给侧改革发力,产业结构调整升级全面跟进 3. Consumption and supply-side reforms are underway, and industrial structure adjustment and upgrading are fully followed up

The change in the structure of consumer demand is an important reason for the evolution of the industrial structure. Consumption upgrades have a guiding role in industrial upgrades, and the adjustment of the industrial structure forms a supply constraint on consumer demand. In recent years, China's consumption structure has been upgraded, but the industrial structure has been lagging behind. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market with "demand but lack of supply" has become a prominent issue in the release of consumer demand in China. The dislocation of supply and demand is mainly manifested in the absolute excess of low-level, low-end goods and low-tech content and low-quality service products on the one hand; on the other hand, the supply of some high-level and high-end goods and services is relatively inadequate, and a large number of actual needs cannot be met . For example, due to insufficient domestic effective supply of high-end consumer goods, overseas purchasing and overseas consumption have developed rapidly in recent years.

In response to the above, on the one hand, the government seized the opportunity of upgrading the consumption structure and the booming emerging consumption, increased policy support for new consumption with the main content of upgrading and upgrading traditional consumption, and the booming emerging consumption, and actively cultivated new momentum for economic growth. . On the other hand, we will actively promote consumer supply-side reforms, strengthen the guidance and catalysis of new consumption on new industries, accelerate the development of emerging industries, and foster new supply for economic development.

With the rise of new-type consumption and government-sponsored supply-side reforms, the upgrading of the consumption structure has significantly enhanced the leading role of related industries, and China's industrial structure has shown new characteristics of service, Internet, and quality. First, the service industry has become the largest investment area and has grown into the largest industry in the national economy. 年,服务业投资比上年增长10.9% ,增速高出第二产业7.4个百分点;占全部固定资产投资比重为58.0% ,高出第二产业19.1个百分点;服务业新增投资占全部新增投资的76%In 2016 , investment in the service industry increased by 10.9% over the previous year, a growth rate of 7.4 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry; accounting for 58.0% of all fixed asset investment, 19.1 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry; new investment in the service industry accounted for all 76% of new investment. 年服务业占GDP比重达51.6% ,服务业对GDP增长的贡献率为58.2% ,比第二产业高出20.8个百分点。 In 2016 , the service industry accounted for 51.6% of GDP , and the service industry's contribution to GDP growth was 58.2% , which was 20.8 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. 年服务业税收收入占全部税收收入的比重为56.5% ,比第二产业占比高出13.2个百分点。 In 2016 , the tax revenue of the service industry accounted for 56.5% of the total tax revenue, which was 13.2 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry.

互联网、电子商务等新商业模式层出不穷,相关行业发展迅猛。 The second is the emergence of new business models such as the Internet and e-commerce, and the rapid development of related industries.1-11月,互联网和相关服务营业收入增长40.0% ,增速比上年同期加快13.6个百分点;移动互联网接入流量累计达82.1亿G ,同比增长124.1%From January to November 2016, the operating income of the Internet and related services increased by 40.0% , an acceleration of 13.6 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; mobile Internet access traffic totaled 8.21 billion G , a year-on-year increase of 124.1% . The sharing economy has penetrated into many fields related to production and life such as transportation, housekeeping, and logistics. The sharing platform represented by "Mobike" and "Didi Shunfeng" has been flourishing. 年全国电子商务交易额达到26.1万亿元,比上年增长19.8%In 2016 , the national e-commerce transaction volume reached 26.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.8% over the previous year. The rapid development of e-commerce has driven the rapid growth of express delivery business. 年,快递服务企业业务收入比上年增长43.5% ,新增业务收入占全国邮政新增业务收入的89.9%In 2016 , the business income of express service companies increased by 43.5% over the previous year, and the new business income accounted for 89.9% of the national postal's new business income.

The third is the rapid development of the “five happy industries” in tourism, culture, sports, health, and retirement, and smart home appliances, smart phones, and wearable smart devices.1-11月,规模以上服务业企业中,“五大幸福产业”营业收入合计同比增长12.6%From January to November 2016, among the service industry enterprises above designated size, the total operating income of the "big five happy industries" increased by 12.6% year-on-year.15.5%24.4%16.4%17.1%Among them, the operating income of tourism service industry, cultural and related industry service industry, sports service industry, health service industry and pension service industry increased by 8.1% , 15.5% , 24.4% , 16.4% and 17.1% respectively year-on-year. 年中国旅游业对国民经济综合贡献达11% ,对社会就业综合贡献超过10.3%According to the estimates of the United Nations World Tourism Organization, in 2016 China's tourism industry contributed 11% to the overall national economy, and its overall contribution to social employment exceeded 10.3% . Consumers' willingness to consume smart home appliances, smart phones, wearable smart devices and other products is very strong, and related industries are experiencing explosive growth.

、消费主导经济增长亟需补足“金融短板” 4. Consumption-led economic growth urgently needs to make up for "financial shortcomings"

As a modern financial service method of providing consumer loans to consumers, consumer finance is an effective means to promote household consumption and mobilize market potential. The significance of finance for stimulating consumption is mainly reflected in the ability to provide consumers with different financing tools, so that consumers have higher intertemporal consumption capabilities. Based on the vast development space and financial needs, with the support of policy support and technological innovation, consumer-related financial services are embracing unprecedented development opportunities. Looking at the long-term trend, consumer finance will become an important growth point for retail banking, and the rapid development of emerging industries driven by new consumption growth points will also provide broad space for wholesale banking.

The huge business opportunities in the consumer financial market and the support of government policies have led to an influx of capitals, especially the launch of consumer finance companies in the country and the rapid development of Internet finance, which has led to financial institutions and non-financial institutions other than traditional banks. Accelerating entry has formed a market structure in which the non-bank financial institutions such as commercial banks, consumer finance companies, and Internet consumer finance are tripartite.

Although China's consumer finance has developed rapidly in recent years, the development of the domestic market is still in its infancy. 年我国一般性消费信贷(除房贷以外)占总消费支出的比例仅为20% ,低于韩国的41%和美国的28%In 2015 , China ’s general consumer credit (other than mortgages) accounted for only 20% of total consumer spending, which was lower than 41% in South Korea and 28% in the United States. 比重仅为美国的1/3 ,可见我国消费信贷渗透率并不高。 In the same period, the scale of China ’s consumer financial market accounted for only one-third of the GDP in the United States, which shows that China ’s consumer credit penetration rate is not high. China's consumption growth is more dependent on the increase of residents' income level, and the role of consumer finance in transforming future consumption potential into immediate consumption has not been fully exerted. When economic growth enters a new stage of consumption-led, the constraints of the "financial shortcomings" are also gradually increasing.

目前我国金融体系仍具有“生产性金融”的特色,尚未真正体现出“消费性金融”的发展方向,消费金融服务过于单一。 First, China's financial system still has the characteristics of "productive finance", which has not really reflected the development direction of "consumer finance", and consumer financial services are too singular. The consumer finance business is mainly focused on consumer credit and lacks diversified consumer finance support. Consumer finance is not limited to financing activities directly related to short-term consumption. It should include financial services with loans, savings, payment settlement, and risk management functions that are provided to meet the consumer demand for final goods and services. The service target is the consumer market, including not only the financial problems faced by consumers themselves, but also consumer-related financial technologies, products, services, laws, regulations, and policies.

银行消费信贷以房贷为主,对于消费的信贷支持还相当有限。 Second, the bank's consumer credit is mainly based on housing loans, and credit support for consumption is still quite limited. Commercial banks are the main body of China's consumer financial market. The consumer credit provided by banks to consumers currently includes housing mortgage loans, car consumer loans, credit card loans, large consumer durables loans, medical loans, home improvement loans, travel loans, and student aid. Loans, etc. ,其他包括助学、旅游、装修等加起来只有一成左右。 Among them, personal housing mortgage loans account for about 70% of consumer credit, credit card loans for more than 10%, car loans less than 5% , and the other including student aid, tourism, decoration and so on add up to only about 10%. However, in foreign consumer finance, housing mortgage loans are usually not counted as consumer financial products. If housing loans are excluded, commercial banks, as the dominant players in China's financial system, have limited credit support for consumption.

作为消费信贷的提供者,消费金融公司、汽车金融公司等非银行金融机构对消费的支持力度也存在不足。 Third, as a provider of consumer credit, consumer financial companies, auto finance companies, and other non-bank financial institutions also have insufficient support for consumption. A consumer financial company is a non-bank financial institution established in China that does not absorb public deposits and provides small loans for consumption purposes to domestic residents. Auto finance companies are non-bank financial institutions that provide financial services to car buyers and sellers in China. 相比,我国汽车金融公司在车贷市场的占比只有20%左右。 Compared with the market share in developed countries, which usually exceeds 60% , China ’s auto finance companies account for only about 20% of the car loan market. The credit scale of consumer finance companies is currently only nearly 100 billion yuan, and its influence is relatively limited.

Looking forward to the future, in order to meet the financial needs of the new stage of consumer-led economic development, it is necessary to make up for the shortcomings in the supply of consumer finance, so that consumer finance will truly become the main force to boost household consumption. To this end, it is necessary to accelerate reform from the two major levels of institutional and product innovation, policy and system optimization, and build a multi-layered and fully functional consumer financial system.