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Higher short-term interest rates are needed to balance growth and prevent risks
Source: Economic Forecast Department of: Wang Shuo Time: 2018-03-29

年以来,央行在货币市场连续调整政策工具利率,在1月和3月连续上调MLF (中期借贷便利)利率,并在2月和3月连续上调逆回购利率,同时SLF (常备借贷便利)利率也在2月全线上调。 Since 2017 , the central bank has continuously adjusted the interest rate of policy instruments in the currency market, continuously raised the MLF (Interim Lending Facility) interest rate in January and March , and continuously raised the reverse repurchase rate in February and March . At the same time, SLF (Standby Lending Facility) Interest rates were also adjusted across the board in February . 个基点左右,使得短期利率上升平缓,但MLF 、逆回购、 SLF这几项货币政策工具利率全线上行释放出的政策信号是明确的,就是货币政策已经从过于宽松向中性均衡转变,货币政策要兼顾稳增长和防风险的需要。 In terms of amplitude, each time the central bank raises the interest rate of these policy instruments, it is basically about 10 basis points, which makes the short-term interest rate rise gently, but the policy signals released by MLF , reverse repurchase, and SLF monetary policy instruments are released online. It is clear that monetary policy has shifted from being too loose to a neutral equilibrium, and monetary policy must take into account the need to stabilize growth and prevent risks.

I. Higher short-term interest rates are needed to deleverage and prevent risks

年国内货币政策工具利率基本稳定,稳增长压力较大的情况下,央行采取了稳健宽松的货币政策,但随着经济逐渐企稳,特别是价格水平回升的情况下,货币政策的调控方向更多开始注重去杠杆和防风险。 In 2016 , the interest rates of domestic monetary policy instruments were basically stable, and the pressure of steady growth was greater. The central bank adopted a sound and loose monetary policy. Start focusing on deleveraging and preventing risks. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference has proposed that “policy shifts from stable growth to preventing risks and promoting reforms.” Financial deleveraging has become an important task to prevent risks. To this end, pushing interest rates higher has become an important means of deleveraging. 年两会上,国家已经公布经济增长目标为6.5% ,显示出对经济增速下降的容忍度进一步提升,但对高杠杆、房地产泡沫等经济风险给予了高度重视,随后全国各地就陆续出台了更为严格的房地产调控新政,显示出抑制资产泡沫、稳健去杠杆已经成为当前首要的调控目标。 At the two sessions in 2017 , the country has announced an economic growth target of 6.5% , showing that the tolerance for the decline in economic growth has been further improved, but high attention has been paid to economic risks such as high leverage and real estate bubbles, which have subsequently been introduced throughout the country. The new policy of stricter real estate regulation shows that curbing asset bubbles and prudent deleveraging have become the current primary regulatory goals.

223日,已有378家银行公布的2017年同业存单发行计划,合计规模约14.41万亿元,这一数据比2016年全年同业存单发行总量13.25万亿还要多出1.16万亿,是20155.3万亿发行量的近3倍,可见同业业务扩张迅速,金融同业杠杆仍在上升。 Financial deleveraging and restraining the real estate bubble need to gradually guide interest rates to rise appropriately and change the relatively loose monetary environment. Financial leverage is mainly reflected in the rapid expansion of interbank business, especially the surge in the number of interbank deposit certificates issued, as of February 23 , 2017 As of today, 378 banks have announced plans for the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit in 2017 with a total scale of approximately 14.41 trillion yuan. This figure is 1.16 trillion more than the total amount of interbank certificates of deposit issued in 2016 for the entire year of 13.25 trillion. Nearly three times the annual issuance of 5.3 trillion yuan, it can be seen that the interbank business is expanding rapidly and the financial interbank leverage is still rising. 年以来一直不断上升,至201612月这一比例已达21.66% ,银行同业去杠杆重点要加强中小银行的同业业务监管,防止资金在银行体系空转,上调利率将全面提高银行体系从央行获得资金的成本,去金融同业杠杆势在必行。 Among them, small and medium banks are the main force in issuing interbank certificates of deposits, making the proportion of interbank liabilities of small and medium banks have been increasing since 2010 , and by December 2016 this proportion has reached 21.66% . The focus of deleveraging on interbanks is to strengthen the small and medium banks. Interbank business supervision, to prevent funds from idling in the banking system, and raising interest rates will comprehensively increase the cost of the banking system to obtain funds from the central bank, and it is imperative to use interbank leverage. In the real estate market, real estate prices in first-tier cities continue to rise, attracting a large number of funds to enter the real estate sector, which has caused the real estate bubble to re-enlarge and enthusiasm for real estate investment. The real estate market is expected to help curb the continued rise in the real estate bubble.

2. Short-term interest rate rises are conducive to stabilizing prices and exchange rates

年以来,国内物价水平继续上升,通货膨胀的风险逐渐加大。 Since 2017 , domestic prices have continued to rise, and the risk of inflation has gradually increased.1-2月,虽然全国居民消费价格同比上涨1.7% ,但全国工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨7.3% ,其中2月份工业生产者出厂价格同比上涨7.8% ,涨幅比上月扩大0.9个百分点,整体上PPI上升势头迅猛,对CPI的上涨的压力需要重视。 In the first two months of 2017 , although the national consumer price rose by 1.7% year-on-year, the country's industrial producer prices rose by 7.3% year-on-year, of which the industrial producers' prices rose by 7.8% year-on-year in February , an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month As a whole, the PPI is rising rapidly, and the pressure on the CPI rise needs attention. At the same time, factors such as rent pressure brought by rising real estate prices and rising labor costs will continue to push up the inflation level. Monetary policy needs to be shifted to a neutral and timely tightening to stabilize market price levels.

年以来,央行及时调整货币政策方向,也与美联储开始加息周期存在明显相关性。 Since 2017 , the central bank's timely adjustment of the direction of its monetary policy is also significantly related to the Fed's interest rate hike cycle. 年下半年以来一直存在较大贬值压力,全年人民币贬值幅度超过6% ,资金外流速度加快。 Due to the strong expectations of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the RMB exchange rate has been under great pressure since the second half of 2016. The RMB depreciation rate for the whole year has exceeded 6% , and the outflow of funds has accelerated. 年以来继续加息的情况下,需要人民币利率及时上行,以稳定人民币汇率水平,并减轻资本流出的压力。 To this end, when the Fed continues to raise interest rates since 2017 , the RMB interest rate needs to rise in time to stabilize the RMB exchange rate level and reduce the pressure on capital outflows. With the current decrease in foreign trade surplus and decline in foreign exchange accounts, maintaining the stability of the value of the Renminbi is of great significance for stabilizing economic growth, and this requires an appropriate increase in interest rates to maintain a stable positive interest rate of the Renminbi against the US dollar. The current global economic recovery is expected to be good. All economies have taken inflation prevention as an important regulatory goal. The world is facing a shift in loose monetary policy. This is the international background for a modest rise in the interest rate of the renminbi.

The short-term interest rate rise has little effect on economic growth

、逆回购、 SLF等货币政策工具利率来引导短期利率上行,体现了央行较新的调控思路,在货币政策需要适当收紧的情况下,同时仍然面临稳增长的压力的情况下,央行没有采取直接提高存贷款利率、存款准备金率等手段直接收紧流动性,有利于减轻货币市场利率上行对实体经济的影响。 The central bank has guided the short-term interest rate upwards by increasing the interest rates of monetary policy instruments such as MLF , reverse repurchase, and SLF , which reflects the relatively new regulatory thinking of the central bank. When monetary policy needs to be tightened properly, it still faces the pressure of steady growth. As a result, the central bank has not adopted measures such as directly increasing deposit and loan interest rates and deposit reserve ratios to directly tighten liquidity, which is conducive to reducing the impact of rising money market interest rates on the real economy. At present, the transmission mechanism of the rise in interest rates on the money market in China is still not smooth. The rise in short-term interest rates will not directly lead to an increase in loan interest rates, and thus will not directly inhibit investment. At the same time, the current level of interest rates in China is shifting from a relatively low level to a neutral and tight level. It is an adjustment to the relatively loose monetary policy in the previous period. It is an appropriate return of the interest rate level to an equilibrium and normal level. Level range, so the negative impact on economic growth is small.