Judging from the industrial environment in the past two years, there is no doubt that the development of the home appliance industry has entered the most difficult stage. Based on the accumulation of the past few decades, the home appliance industry has been at the forefront of market-oriented development, and relying on industrial advantages, technological advantages and manufacturing advantages, it has become an important support for the national real economy. With these two years of reform, the home appliance industry is also facing unprecedented pressure. Is the future bright? Where is the way forward? At the Ninth China Household Appliance Marketing Annual Conference, which just ended recently, Cai Ying, a senior expert from the National Information Center, gave an in-depth interpretation of the current development status of the home appliance industry and future trends and opportunities. He believes that, driven by many emerging markets, sub-sectors and innovative models, China's home appliance industry is still full of opportunities.
Factors affecting the development of the industry
First, China's manufacturing industry is in the painful period of transformation.
Judging from the current stage, China's manufacturing industry is in a transformation and upgrading stage. From big to strong, it takes time first, and cost second.
In fact, in terms of production capacity, China's overall manufacturing level and manufacturing scale still lead the world. Taking 2018 as an example, from the perspective of production capacity, China's manufacturing capacity is greater than the total of the United States, Germany, and Japan.
But the transition requires a transition period, during which there will be fluctuations unique to the transition period.
From the perspective of manufacturing development, 2019 faces unprecedented pressure and challenges. Pressure is related to national policy adjustments and industrial adjustments, and will continue to exist in the short term. In this regard, home appliance manufacturers need to look at their irreversibility and enhance their ability to resist pressure and risk. Prepare for a period of adaptation and adjustment, which will test every participant in the appliance supply chain. Going through the painful period of transformation will achieve a win-win situation for corporate development and profitability.
Second, real estate has experienced differential fluctuations.
The development of the real estate market is closely related to the home appliance industry.
This year, the entire real estate market has exhibited several distinct features.
First, policy control. From September and October, the real estate regulation and control policies in first-tier cities have always been strictly controlled.
Secondly, under the pressure of regulation and control, real estate companies themselves have begun to tighten investment, including investment activities such as land purchases, which have significantly reduced. From January to October 2019, investment (overall) was 10.3% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower than January-September; (residential) was 14.6% year-on-year, 0.3% lower than January-September; sales (commercial housing) were 0.1% (Residential) 1.5% YoY.
In addition, the growth rate of newly started real estate real estate declined, compared with the peak period of the previous two years, the overall sales growth rate slowed.
Overall house prices fell steadily. Specifically, in the east: -2.1%; in the middle: 0.6%; in the west: 3.8%; in the northeast: 5.0%.
The real estate situation in central regions and third- and fourth-tier cities is better than that in first-tier cities.
Finally, at the end of the third quarter of 2019, the balance of personal loans was 29.08 trillion yuan, a 16.8% year-on-year, and consumer housing purchases still accounted for the largest portion of consumption.
Taken together, the real estate market is not bad, but it has grown too fast in the past few years, resulting in an inadaptability to today's relatively stable situation. According to comprehensive judgment, the scale of the entire real estate to the sales of commercial housing this year and next has not changed much, and the total scale has decreased.
The differences are twofold.
On the one hand, the overall market is cold and the regional markets are very different. On the other hand, the requirements for hardcover housing have increased the real estate developer's ability to regulate. It can be said that hardcover rooms have opened a window for some enterprises, and at the same time, they must realize that some enterprises are also shielded from the outside world. How to win a cup of hardcover market is an important reference for the future development of home appliance companies.
Third, the overall consumption environment.
From January to October this year, the overall consumption situation narrowed compared with last year.
In October 2019, the total retail sales of domestic consumer goods increased by 7.2% year-on-year. Excluding price factors, the actual increase was 4.9%, which is the two lower figures from October 2018 to October 2019. This set of data also broke the sales season of "Golden Nine Silver and Ten".
Although the overall increase was only 7.2%, catering accounted for 9.0%, commodity retail sales accounted for 7.0%, and home appliances and audiovisual equipment accounted for 0.7%. Compared with other categories, the sales performance of home appliance categories is not satisfactory.
But at the same time, we can see that changes have taken place regardless of platform, channel or trend.
Judging from the e-commerce platform, there are currently various forms such as fight, group, group, etc., which are sold on the platform. The change of this model has two sides.
On the one hand, various forms are the driving force for stimulating consumption; but at the same time, we must also realize that the main competition focus of fights, groups, and groups is focused on prices. Low quality will appear on the other side. This has squeezed the space for excellent manufacturers and quality products.
From 2018, the overall consumption trend has changed greatly. By 2019, this change is even more obvious, especially the market differentiation in the segmented areas. Including infant market, senior market, single market, small family market, etc. The changes in the structure of the consumer market and the multi-level division are the comprehensive characterization of the consumer environment in the entire home appliance market.
Opportunity and possibility
Changes on the one hand bring pressure, on the other hand mean opportunities, bring more possibilities for home appliance manufacturers.
Opportunities from big data.
At present, we already have a very good foundation and environment for the use of big data and have basic advantages. At the same time, after years of development, e-commerce platforms have accumulated a large amount of basic data, as well as application tools and data application experience. The application of big data in the manufacturing industry is to judge consumers and consumer demand, and nurture upstream manufacturing chains to conduct flexible production according to consumer demand, including design, procurement, and so on. The biggest benefit of big data is the rapid supply chain response of small batches and multiple batches. For small companies and brands, the accuracy of big data can alleviate the pressure and dilemma that companies currently face.
Get the most out of sharing.
In the past, manufacturers' capital chains mainly relied on banks, which circulated, expanded and enhanced operations through bank loan channels. At present, China's development in the sharing economy is at the forefront, and shared resources, including personnel, plant, equipment, etc., can be shared. And sharing has another feature, that is, resources are shared with each other.
At present, the scope of sharing is very large. It can be divided into product sharing, space sharing, knowledge and skills sharing, labor sharing, financial capital sharing, production capacity sharing, and even capacity sharing.
At present, there are also cases for home appliance manufacturing in terms of capacity sharing. For example, the capacity-sharing ecology initiated by Internet entrepreneurs, the capacity-sharing platform set up by industry authorities, the capacity-sharing platform built by industry-wide companies, and some capacity-sharing platforms built by some manufacturing companies themselves.
The key to sharing is how to purposefully make sharing its own resources and assistance, which is the focus of the industry at present.
Lessons from the innovation model.
At present, several innovation models that have received the most attention in the home appliance industry focus on the market breakthrough of Xiaomi, Pinduoduo and traditional brands.
The most representative model innovation is Xiaomi. The key to the innovation of the Xiaomi model is also to apply sharing to the extreme, including: design sharing; development sharing; capacity sharing. These supply chain sharing has made Xiaomi today. And this kind of sharing mode innovation is unprecedented in the home appliance industry.
Another representative of model innovation is Pinduoduo.
Pinduoduo's innovation is also based on sharing, and maximizes the fission effect of sharing. Pinduoduo gathers the tier 3 and 4 of the Everbright market, and starts from demand sharing. Through the application of big data, it accumulates a large number of users, intervenes in the manufacturing end, compresses the circulation link, reduces procurement costs, and conducts new brand. Cultivation. At present, the mode innovation of Pinduoduo is undoubtedly successful, and it is also worth thinking and learning from traditional home appliance companies.
In addition, for traditional manufacturing brands, Haier is at the forefront of model innovation.
What Haier has adopted is internal product sharing and precise market segmentation.
Haier's No. 1 store in Shanghai is a typical shared innovation product. Within the Haier brand, a small ecosystem is formed to sell complete sets of products. This model has several characteristics. First, it takes full advantage of Haier's product line to conduct "group sales"; second, it pools all internal resources and mobilizes the sales and consumption enthusiasm of all employees and users; third, it relies on brand advantages And resource advantages, it will focus on some groups of people, but also niche and high-end groups. The retail price of each set of products starts from 1 million yuan, and the price band is set according to the different products. 1 million yuan, 2 million yuan, and 5 million yuan. Yuan, even tens of millions of yuan of supporting products can be realized within the private brand ecology. Unlike Pinduoduo ’s popularization strategy, Haier has just taken a niche route and only targeted the target customer group, that is, maximized in the segmented market.
The exploration of Haier's complete product sales model and the judgment of the market means that from the perspective of innovation, the tone, model, positioning and promotion method of the entire market have changed. The core of the change lies in positioning the brand's tone and finding a more suitable development model.
Therefore, looking at the market from a different perspective may be the way for brand manufacturers to innovate and develop.
Consumption potential is support.
According to statistics, Chinese residents spend about 200 billion US dollars shopping abroad a year, and the shopping list includes high-end goods and daily consumer goods. Among them, online retail sales ranked first in the world for 6 consecutive years. Regardless of the consumption upgrade in cities or the expansion of consumption in rural areas, whether from active consumption or industry-created consumption, including the expansion of consumption tentacles from domestic to foreign countries, it shows the unlimited potential of domestic consumption. This consumption capacity and consumption potential is sufficient to support the kinetic energy conversion of the domestic manufacturing industry, provided that it produces products that are more in line with modern consumer demand, including quality and function upgrades.
Opportunities beyond market segments, mainstream markets.
The consumer market is more segmented, and personalized, multi-level, and diversified consumption will continue to be reflected and manufactured. Including manufacturing in a network environment, manufacturing, manufacturing, R & D, and marketing systems can identify and meet the needs of these market segments, so as to achieve the largest market share in the market segment, occupy the target market by improving efficiency, rather than the mainstream market maximize.
Boosting role of the platform.
Data services for the platform. The large amount of consumption-related data accumulated on the e-commerce platform can help manufacturing companies analyze and predict consumer demand changes, and innovate marketing channels and methods. The various types of e-commerce platforms will empower manufacturing companies in data mining. More and more prominent.
The exciting potential of the platform. New shopping models derived from the platform will stimulate new consumer demand. The matching of industrial Internet and consumption data can promote the traditional manufacturing industry to provide higher quality goods, thereby stimulating new consumption potential.
Platform for growth. Provide big data support, slanted traffic, R & D advice, and consumer convenience.
Thinking change. With a series of new-generation information technology applications, coupled with the acceleration of 5G, it provides manufacturers with ways and conditions to change their thinking. Through the use of the Internet, the thinking of the Internet and the thinking of the sharing economy can look at everything they are engaged in now, and they can change their methods or perspectives.
From department stores in the past to home appliance chain stores, to e-commerce platforms, and to today's emerging emerging e-commerce platforms, consumer lock-in is becoming more and more precise, and the pace of innovation in marketing models is getting faster, including through The number of target customers gathered by the new Internet method is also increasing. Pinduoduo has accumulated more than 400 million users in just a few years , which is the product and result of typical Internet thinking.
This model is not a subversion of the traditional model, but a new continuation of the traditional supply chain innovation. In other words, the core of traditional commerce, including services, brands, sales, etc. has not changed. The change is in the shell represented by models and marketing, but this external change is exactly in line with the current market, times and consumers Demand. What has changed is the difference in thinking and entry.
Whether it is agriculture, manufacturing or the service industry, we can re-examine whether any link or any element can change its thinking digitally. In the past, the home appliance industry could create the glory of the market-oriented era. At present, through more advanced technological means, including more diverse operating models and gameplay, to give full play to industrial advantages and technological advantages, under relatively large pressures, it is still possible to rebuild the industrial development in the changing times.