On October 31, the Global Future Science and Technology Conference 2019 was held in Guangzhou under the guidance of the Communications Administration of Guangdong Province and hosted by the Guangdong Internet Association and hosted by Ai Media Consulting. The "Global Future Technology Conference" has successfully held nine consecutive sessions so far, which has caused great repercussions in the industry and has become one of the most influential new economic industry feasts in the world. It has been hailed as the "industrial development vane". Zhang Xinhong, Chief Information Officer of the National Information Center and Director of the Sharing Economy Research Center, attended the conference and delivered a keynote speech on "5G and the Future of the Digital Economy."
Zhang Xinhong said that "talking about the future" is a very difficult matter, especially in the field of information technology, where the market is changing rapidly. However, there is a trajectory to follow for judging the future. He explained ten basic judgments on the development trends of 5G and the digital economy with vivid cases.
Judgment 1: Four factors help us see the future
The first element is "technology." What technologies will affect development in the future? 5G is a very important technology. How it will develop in the future will determine the future of the digital economy. The second element is "demand." What problems are facing the current economic and social development? How can we use these new technologies to solve and improve them? If we can find out these needs and correspond to the application of future technologies, we can also help us make a preliminary judgment on the future. The third element is "change." When the digital economy or social development around us has shown some signs, these signs may still be very small, but it represents the future development direction, and it will gradually expand to affect the entire economic and social development. The fourth element is "policy." What do we think of 5G now, how do we think about the new generation of information technology innovation, what kind of policy orientation will we use, what kind of system, laws, and regulations will we introduce? What we think, what we think, and what we do now will determine the future What it looks like. Zhang Xinhong believes that if we can see these four factors clearly, we can draw some preliminary judgments about the future of 5G and the digital economy.
Judgment 2: The pace of digital change in the world has accelerated
Zhang Xinhong said that the digital economy is not only because of 5G, but it will accelerate development due to the emergence of 5G. "Professor Chandler once wrote a book called" Information Changes the United States. "In fact, information has changed not only the United States, but China, the world, and every aspect of our lives and work. All these changes were made unknowingly. "Later, Zhang Xinhong shared a set of pictures detailing the changes from taxis to ride-hailing, car technology changes from Toyota to Tesla, online takeaway The rise of platforms, the popularity of mobile payment methods, and many other typical cases that have profoundly changed the way of life of the Chinese people. "These sets of pictures illustrate how numbers are changing our lives, changing our work, and changing everything around us. There is a certain logic behind it. With 5G, all this will accelerate development." Zhang Xinhong said .
Judgment 3: The network has become an important force in resource allocation
In the past, there were two important forces in the allocation of resources. One was the visible hand —policy, the other was the invisible hand—the market, and now there is a third hand—the Internet. Zhang Xinhong said that I talked about dimensionality reduction just now because it used a third hand and learned that using the third hand would have a dimensionality reduction impact on traditional industries. The ability to mobilize resources on the network is under the traditional economic format, and neither the government nor the market can match it.
Among the network configuration resources, the most widely used is "Internet +". Why is "Internet +" so powerful? Zhang Xinhong made three points of friendship. The first point is that when talking about "Internet +", we must take into account all the functions and attributes of the Internet, and not just use it as a channel, media, or propaganda culture. It has a variety of attributes and functions, and these attributes and functions are still evolving and improving. You need to add them all. The second point reminds that when considering "Internet +", all factors and each link of change need to be considered, including its direct elements, indirect elements, and the process of each element change. These factors should be carried out one by one. In order to call it "Internet +". The third point is that when considering "Internet +", we must not only think of the Internet. It refers to the integration of the new generation of information and technology represented by the Internet. All technologies should be considered, including the Internet and mobile Internet. , Big data cloud computing, artificial intelligence, AR, VR, and possibly digital twins, blockchain, and so on in the future. These new technologies have their own kinetic energy and properties, and they are constantly changing. Only when all these technologies and elements are considered clearly can we achieve a comprehensive "Internet +". The result of comprehensive "Internet +" is comprehensive integration. Networks must be fused together. Technology is fused. Data is fused. Trends are fused. Production and sales are fused. And each integration is a new innovation, and it will produce a new value explosion. It triggers comprehensive innovation, technological innovation, product innovation, model innovation, system innovation and idea innovation. Zhang Xinhong believes that such a development trend is because with 5G, more and more connected things will become more and more valuable in the future, so 5G will greatly increase opportunities for future innovation.
Judgment 4: Human ability to recognize and change the world has been greatly enhanced
We talk about numbers changing the world, what is its connotation ? Zhang Xinhong said that in the model of human knowledge, the lowest level of data is called the true guarantee of human knowledge. The data that the machine can recognize is 0 and 1. But now we have new technology, the machine will automatically capture all these 0s and 1s, and convert it into data that humans can understand. At this time we call it information. With this information, we can do a lot of things and sum up a lot of development rules. This is called knowledge. Using this knowledge to guide our work and our decisions is called wisdom. With big data, with a variety of sensing devices, many things that were previously unthinkable became possible. If all the data in some fields can be found out later, it will be found that human beings' ability to understand the world and transform the world will definitely develop by leaps and bounds, and all laws may be realized. This is how data changes the knowledge that we know and transform the world. Zhang Xinhong further explained that dataization is the process of turning things and their movements into identifiable information; using basic data to fully recognize and optimize the process of transforming the objective world. According to Zhang Xinhong's research and carding, he believes that the important role of big data is mainly reflected in the five basic effects: identification, reproduction, correlation, premium, and prediction.
Judgment 5: Data drives everything possible
Now all the data can be obtained. For example, everyone is using WeChat campaigns, and how many roads are taken each day will be recorded. "These data are very useful. Maybe you don't know. When you go to get insurance in the future, someone will tell you that I'm sorry you might pay a little more premium than others, because you often don't walk." Zhang Xinhong said all the data Will be recorded, but can not be used indiscriminately. "I once saw an article saying that the statistics found that the world ’s richest 2% of the people walked an average of 12,000 steps a day. A young man in China refused to accept it. He tried to walk, and every day How can you not become a rich man when you walk 12,000 steps? This is called big data. "In addition, some data, such as the number of people entering the park, the number of people leaving the park, and the number of people in the park, are simple but valuable. With it, it is easier to avoid stomping events. In the past, some data was difficult to capture, but now many statistical tasks have become simple and accurate and presented in an acceptable way. This is called big data presentation. With this data, it becomes possible to speak with the data, make decisions based on the data, and act on the data. For enterprises, from product recommendation, design, network launch, to the improvement of the final service, the guarantee of production safety, and performance evaluation, all can be accomplished through big data. With 5G in the future, these data will increase. 5G will bring a new round of data explosion. A new round of fission is inevitable, giving us more possibilities to speak with data.
Judgment 6: Accelerated conversion of new and old kinetic energy
In the past few decades, the driving force for economic development has been the dividends of reform, the dividends of globalization, the dividends of population, the stimulus of investment, the stimulus of consumption, and the input of resources. But these kinetic energy are now encountering bottlenecks. Zhang Xinhong said that with the digital revolution and information technology, these original kinetic energy can be transformed and upgraded, and they can continue to play a role after being digitized. This is called "digital endurance." At present, the globalization of the new service model of Chinese enterprises is obvious. Didi has shares in seven of the world's leading car-hailing companies; Wifi Master Keys have been globally deployed from the beginning; Tujia and Piggy Short Lease have customers around the world. In addition, almost global webcasts are provided by Chinese companies. Zhang Xinhong believes that the development of 5G in the future will play a very important role in the construction of new kinetic energy. China's current and future new kinetic energy will be concentrated in four aspects. The first is technological innovation, the second is model innovation, the third is institutional innovation, and the fourth is conceptual innovation. The development of 5G will play a very important role in promoting these four innovations in the future. Overall, 5G acceleration of new and old kinetic energy conversion should be very obvious and worth looking forward to.
Judgment 7: New models and new formats represented by the sharing economy are emerging
"Everyone knows that the sharing economy, or sharing economy, is a concept and prototype that originated in the United States, but the story that is best told and the most exciting is China." Zhang Xinhong said. The data shows that in 2018, the transaction value of China's sharing economy reached 294.2 billion yuan, the financing amount in this field reached 149 billion yuan, the number of employees on the platform reached 5.98 million, the number of servers reached 75 million, and the number of users was 760 million people. This series of dazzling data is currently only available in China. From an innovation perspective, the latest global sharing economy model can basically be found in China, and there are many models that do better in China than abroad. Many models are original to China and have developed well around the world. We have had many original models since 2016. 2016 was called the first year of bike sharing, the first year of knowledge payment, and the first year of webcasting. By 2017, all kinds of sharing will be more, sharing charging treasures, sharing umbrellas, sharing basketball, sharing parking spaces, sharing college dormitories. There are many different models. For China, the operation of the real economy is also accelerating. What can be shared? Zhang Xinhong believes that "everything that can be shared will eventually be shared." From the perspective of supply, it will be divided into six categories: product sharing; space sharing; knowledge and skill sharing; labor service sharing; financial capital sharing; and production capacity sharing.
Judgment # 8: Big challenges in the world economic landscape
The world economic structure will face great challenges. This is an inevitable result of the development of the digital economy, and 5G development will certainly play a role in the future. Whether 5G is well developed or applied will also change the future status of a country and region in the world. Zhang Xinhong said that in fact, any major technological change will trigger a new round of global economic structural adjustment. With 40 years of reform and opening up, China has been struggling and catching up, seizing the opportunities of the Internet revolution or the digital revolution. This time, we can't relax anymore, let alone 5G. The whole power to promote the world has changed. The more important point is that 67.8% of the total GDP growth in 2018 was contributed by the digital economy. Therefore, to say which provinces and cities have developed rapidly in recent years, they must follow The rapid development of the digital economy is related to the future development of the digital economy, which will determine the changes in the future position and competitive advantage of a country, a region, an industry, and an enterprise.
Judgment # 9: All businesses are worth repeating
With a series of new-generation information technology applications, coupled with the acceleration of 5G, you will find that all businesses can be relaunched. As long as you use the Internet, the Internet thinking and the thinking of the sharing economy will look again. With all this you are doing now, you will find that you can really change the gameplay. Zhang Xinhong said that whether it is agriculture, manufacturing or service industry, it is possible to re-examine whether any link or any element can be changed with digital methods. At present, China has explored many ways in the field of capacity sharing, which are summarized in four modes: the capacity sharing ecosystem initiated by Internet entrepreneurs; the capacity sharing platform initiated by industry authorities; the capacity sharing platform created by industry-leading companies; Some manufacturing companies have built some capacity sharing platforms. "Some netizens said that in the future, you can buy a driverless car. When you want to use it, let it pick it up. When not in use, let it run Didi. If you are done, you can also support yourself." Zhang Xinhong believes, such The scene will not be too far away, and 5G will do even better. In addition, in various fields such as healthcare, education, finance, and energy, digitalization will also accelerate its development, and it will have more possibilities and more innovation space than in the past.
Judgement 10: Today is the first day
"The changes brought by 5G have been great, but the changes that can be spoken out now are not the greatest. Really great discoveries and inventions have not yet appeared, and we look forward to future practice giving us answers." Zhang Xinhong said, if there is With 5G, these 12 kinds of scientific and technological forces will be more powerful. I summarize them into several types: network, data, intelligence, service, personalization, platform, ecology, and equipment. 5G is added to each transformation, and its meaning and connotation should be more abundant. What's more important is that the 6G report has now been released. We want to bring more changes to our lives with 5G, and of course we should pay attention to this greater technological invention. It has not been known what will change from 1G-5G and 6G-NG. From PC interconnection to mobile interconnection to the Internet of Everything in the 5G era, what is new after 5G? Zhang Xinhong made a report called Life Internet, which was considered feasible after research. All life will be connected, not a conversation between you and someone. In the future, you can talk freely with any kind of animal. For further development, some people say that it is the interstellar Internet and unlimited technology, depending on our imagination. "The really great product has not yet appeared, maybe it is your chance!" Finally, Zhang Xinhong concluded: "What will happen in the future depends on our current choice." What you do now, you have a future. It is necessary to make good use of the new generation of information technology revolution, seize the opportunities of the digital revolution, and seize the opportunities of 5G development.
(Source: Ai Media)