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Big data helps high-quality preparation of the 14th Five-Year Plan
Source: Big Data Department Time: 2019-11-05

The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is a key period for China to move from a well-off society in an all-round way to the basic realization of socialist modernization. Important opportunity period. The complex situation facing the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is unprecedented. The changes in the situation, the rules, and the conditions are "three changes superimposed." The difficulty of planning and the newness of planning coexist. 各地迫切 需要 运用新思路、新手段和新方法 对中长期发展的全局性、关键性、深层次问题开展深入研究 ,切实提升 “十四五”规划编制的科学性、精准性和前瞻性。 From a new historical perspective , localities urgently need to use new ideas, new methods, and new methods to carry out in-depth research on the overall, critical, and in-depth issues of mid- and long-term development , and effectively improve the scientificity of the 14th Five-Year Plan. , Precision and forward-looking.

I. Using big data to assist development planning is the general trend

(1) The central government explicitly requires the use of big data innovation planning and preparation methods

The Party Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the use of big data to enhance the modernization of national governance. General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly emphasized the need to establish and improve big data to assist scientific decision-making and social governance mechanisms to achieve scientific government decisions, precise social governance, and efficient public services Into. ,是党治国理政的重要方式 ,也是中国特色社会主义发展模式的重要体现。 Leading economic and social development with planning is an important way of governing the country by the party and an important embodiment of the development model of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Therefore, it is necessary to use big data innovation and improve the development planning method and method to better play the strategic guiding role of development planning. 018 年中共中央办公厅印发《关于统一规划体系更好发挥国家发展规划战略导向作用的意见》,明确提出 “综合运用大数据、云计算等现代信息技术,创新规划编制手段”,为各地探索大数据在“十四五”规划中的应用提供了政策依据。 In 2008, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China issued the Opinions on the Unified Planning System to Better Bring the Strategic Guiding Role of National Development Planning into Practice, and explicitly proposed "Integrating the use of modern information technologies such as big data and cloud computing to innovate planning methods" for local exploration The application of big data in the 14th Five-Year Plan provides a policy basis.

(2) Big data helps make up for the shortcomings of traditional planning methods

The traditional method of development planning is too simple. First, it depends too much on management experience and the laws of things to carry out planning, and it lacks systematic and standardized decision-making. The second is the timeliness and flexibility of various basic data and statistical data that support planning. Poor, it is often difficult to support scientific and rational planning analysis and research; thirdly, the public participation channels are not smooth and the mechanism is not perfect, which limits the public's expression of development planning demands. And the characteristics of multi-source, real-time, human-oriented features of big data are closely coupled with the essential attributes of development planning decisions, making its impact on development planning more significant. 要素支撑条件、资源环境约束和重大风险防范等 , 有助于更加 深入论证重大工程、重大项目、重大政策实施的必要性、可行性和效果影响。 The use of big data thinking, methods and technical means can accurately, quantitatively, and precisely analyze and study the supporting conditions of factors, resource and environmental constraints, and major risk prevention, etc. , which helps to further demonstrate the need for major projects, major projects, and major policy implementation. Impact, feasibility and effect.

(3) Big data methods have been widely used in the field of spatial planning

In the context of the current explosive growth of data, urban planning departments and research institutions in various regions have fully integrated and aggregated multi-dimensional urban big data resources, built a big data-based spatial planning database system, built a multi-source data calculation model, and focused on solving spatial multidimensional Big data association analysis and other issues have played a fundamental supporting role in the preparation and evaluation of urban planning, and also accumulated valuable experience for the application of big data in the field of development planning. GIS对城市地理空间信息强大的管理和分析功能,准确计算人口密度和建筑容量, 进行有关城市总体规划的各项技术经济指标,完成城市规划、道路拓宽改建过程中拆迁指标计算,从而有效确定各种用地性质,辅助城市用地选择和建设项目合理选址 For example, Chongqing uses remote sensing data and GIS to powerfully manage and analyze urban geospatial information, accurately calculate population density and building capacity, and carry out various technical and economic indicators related to the overall urban planning, and complete demolition during urban planning and road widening and reconstruction Index calculation to effectively determine the nature of various land uses, assist urban land selection and reasonable site selection for construction projects .

2. Strengthen the application of big data in planning from three aspects

(I) Find out the status quo

The first is to focus on high-quality development. O2O)等多方面数据源,基于地理信息系统构建产业空间转移、人口流动、新经济运行、新型城镇化、投资结构优化、消费升级等方面经济监测预测指标体系,形成经济运行监测分析“一张图”, 为分析各地 经济新旧发展动能接续转换、产业结构升级和空间布局优化 提供数据支撑,以此推动打造高质量现代产业体系。 Comprehensive use of industrial and commercial registration, corporate taxation, satellite remote sensing, mobile location services, bidding, transportation logistics, online and offline consumption ( O2O) and other data sources, based on geographic information systems to build industrial space transfer, population migration, new economic operations, New urbanization, investment structure optimization, consumption upgrade and other aspects of economic monitoring and forecasting index system, forming a "one picture" of economic operation monitoring and analysis, providing data support for the analysis of the continuous conversion of new and old economic development kinetic energy, industrial structure upgrade and spatial layout optimization . To promote the creation of a high-quality modern industrial system.

The second is to focus on high-level openness. 促进国际产能和装备制造合作 加快自贸试验区建设 进展及发展机遇 ,进一步推动形成开放型经济发展的新格局 ,努力打造高层次对外开放体系。 Focusing on the possible changes in the environment at home and abroad, especially the changes in the international economic and trade environment in the context of the Sino-U.S. Trade war, the comprehensive use of data resources such as population flow, traffic flow, information flow, capital flow, and technology flow to analyze the flow of key elements in various places The situation, analyzes the deep integration of local development strategies in major countries, promotes international production capacity and equipment manufacturing cooperation , accelerates the progress and development opportunities of the free trade pilot zone , further promotes the formation of a new pattern of open economic development , and strives to build a high-level open system.

The third is to focus on high-level innovation. General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out that it is necessary to fully understand that innovation is the first driving force, improve the supply of high-quality science and technology, and strive to support the construction of a modern economic system. Utilize Internet data such as patents, intellectual property rights, copyrights, etc., to identify the main areas of scientific and technological innovation, key technologies, core enterprises, etc., to guide the direction of science and technology investment in the 14th Five-Year Plan, key enterprise cultivation goals, talent cultivation and introduction measures, and scientific and technological achievements Transformation models, etc., will increase the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress during the “Fourteenth Five-Year Plan” to promote the construction of a high-energy-level innovation-driven system.

The fourth is to focus on high-level ecology . 美丽 中国的 战略目标、战略导向、重点任务领域和创新政策建议 ,以此推动高水平生态环境体系形成。 According to the concept of "green mountains and green mountains are the golden mountains and the silver mountains," use data resources such as environmental pollution, environmental governance, and ecological carrying capacity to determine the new positioning, new requirements, and new missions of ecological environmental protection under economic and social development and changes, and analyze major opportunities and challenges. With risks, analyze weaknesses and shortcomings that need to be made up, research and put forward strategic goals, strategic directions, key task areas and innovative policy suggestions for building a beautiful China , so as to promote the formation of a high-level ecological environment system.

(2) Understanding public opinion

The first is to analyze people's sense of gain. Based on technical methods such as machine learning and semantic analysis, based on the perception of local economic and social improvement by different groups such as experts, scholars, entrepreneurs, and ordinary Internet users, the development of innovative development, coordinated development, green development, open development, and shared development According to the situation of supply side structural reform, “One Belt and One Road” construction, regional coordinated development strategy, innovation-driven strategy, poverty alleviation and other major reforms, and the implementation of strategic tasks, the perception of gains was analyzed.

The second is to monitor people's troubles. Automatically extract from massive Internet text data, and in-depth excavation of inadequate and unbalanced problems that may be faced by various places in terms of development concept change, development quality improvement, and institutional mechanism innovation. Seek truth from facts to reflect the main contradictions in economic and social development and identify obstacles. The prominent issues and key sticking points of the public's sense of gain, happiness, and security, accurately grasp the overall economic and social development situation, and provide a basis for better promoting economic and social development.

The third is to study and judge people's demands. Combined with new changes in the development environment at home and abroad, based on text clustering, opinion recognition algorithms, and machine learning, the public's needs are fully and accurately perceived, and various market players ' suggestions for further promoting economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period are extracted . And appeals, to provide a reference for the planning process to determine mid- and long-term economic and social development goals, main tasks and key measures.

(Three) deduction prediction

The first is to predict the direction of technological revolution and industrial change. 全球 主要国家发明专利、科技文献、科研专项、创业投资、产业并购、国际贸易等方面数据,分析 全国 重点领域科技和产业变革核心趋势;结合专家问卷、访谈、调研等传统数据收集手段,对信息技术、新能源、未来交通、生命科学、量子技术等重点领域科技革命和产业变革重点方向进行技术预见研究。 Based on data on invention patents, scientific and technological literature, scientific research projects, venture capital, industrial mergers and acquisitions, international trade, etc. in major countries around the world , analyze the core trends of technological and industrial transformation in key areas of the country ; combining traditional data collection methods such as expert questionnaires, interviews, and research Research on technology foresight in key areas such as information technology, new energy, future transportation, life sciences, and quantum technology.

The second is to predict the effectiveness of major strategies and policies. 数据、统计数据、税收数据、财政数据等相互结合,从财政支持资金的效果出发,对已有政策进行评估 并且结合最新形势,分析扩大政策覆盖面、提升政策支持力度等 措施 对区域财政负担 的影响 情况。 Combining industrial and commercial data, statistical data, tax data, financial data, etc., starting from the effect of financial support funds, evaluating existing policies , and combining the latest situation, analyzing measures such as expanding policy coverage and enhancing policy support for regional finance The impact of the burden . 对有序疏解 低端产业退出等政策进行预评估 测算短期内对税收的影响。 For example , pre-assessment of policies such as orderly easing and exit of low-end industries , and measuring the impact on taxes in the short term. Pre-evaluate the planned new industrial policies, analyze the enterprise objects that they may cover, and analyze their possible driving forces .

Third, improve the use of big data to support the development of the planning mechanism

(I) Strengthen data sharing

The first is to further promote the integration and sharing of government affairs data, and to clarify the responsibilities and principles of government departmental data to achieve departmental sharing and social openness in the manner of local regulations, so that the data is truly "liberated" and value is released. The second is to sign data sharing cooperation agreements with well-known Internet companies, financial institutions, telecommunications operators, and leading enterprises in the field to promote e-commerce, search engines, consumption records, location information, spatial geography, transportation and logistics, innovation and entrepreneurship, urban operations, and prices. Unified access to social data sources such as information, livelihood services, online employment, and tourism services.

(B) Strengthen platform support

规划工作综合研究大数据系统,构建 “十四五 规划编制研究大数据指标库、方法库、模型库、知识库,做好规划大数据分析可视化、指数化与产品化工作,开展各类大数据分析指标与传统统计指标或其他数据源的回归比对和关联分析。 Establish a “14th Five-Year Plan for comprehensive research on big data systems covering core business data at all levels, shared exchange data, social third-party collection data, and Internet data , and build a “14th Five-Year Plan for research and development of big data index databases and method libraries , Model library, knowledge base, do a good job of planning big data analysis visualization, indexing and productization, and carry out regression comparison and correlation analysis of various big data analysis indicators and traditional statistical indicators or other data sources.

(3) Strengthening intelligence pooling

发展规划专家委员会之下,设立大数据专题组,邀请国内外大数据分析应用领域顶尖高校院所、大数据部门领导和知名企业专家参加,并形成与规划编制各方向的联合研讨和深度参与机制。 First, under the "Fourteenth Five-Year " Development Planning Expert Committee, a big data task force was set up to invite domestic and foreign leaders in top universities and colleges in the field of big data analysis and application, big data departments and experts from well-known companies to participate in the formation and planning process. Direction of joint discussions and deep participation mechanisms. 规划工作综合研究大数据系统有机衔接,吸纳相关高校、院所、企业共同参与规划编制大数据算法模型开发和平台搭建。 The second is to initiate the establishment of a planning and implementation evaluation big data application engineering laboratory, which is integrated with the "14th Five-Year Plan " for comprehensive research on big data systems. It will involve relevant universities, institutes, and enterprises to jointly participate in the planning and preparation of big data algorithm model development and development. Platform construction. Establish a laboratory council system to form a resource guarantee mechanism for planning big data talents, technology, and funds.

About the Author:

Cao Pan, deputy dean of Chongqing Western Big Data Frontier Application Research Institute, and general manager of Beijing Yidianying Technology Co., Ltd., is mainly engaged in government big data decision support analysis.

This article was published in Digital China Construction Newsletter, edited and published by the Digital Information Research Institute of the National Information Center , No. 4, 2019