Since the industrialization era, more and more cities have developed into large cities and megacities, and more and more urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas have been formed and developed, which has become an important trend in the form of human society. 本文基于五度模型，对三大都市圈的发展进行分析。 In China, with the rise of the five national urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, and the follow-up Chengdu-Chongqing and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China's urbanization has entered the era of the metropolis circle. Based on the five-degree model, Analyze the development of the three metropolitan areas.
本研究报告 重点针对京津冀、长三角、珠三角三大都市圈进行洞察和分析解读。 Based on China Unicom's mobile phone user data, China Unicom's Smart Footprint Data Technology Co., Ltd. proposes a comprehensive rating and measurement of domestically based on five major dimensional models, including top ranking, population popularity, connection strength, foreign concentration, and development thickness, based on the spatial and temporal location big data. The status and characteristics of the development of the metropolitan area. This research report focuses on the insights and interpretations of the three metropolitan areas of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta.
Definition and connotation of the first and fifth degree models
The formation and development of the metropolitan area is the product of the development of urbanization to a higher stage, and has now become the main form of urbanization space. In the process of rapid urbanization in China, the economic strength and radiation diffusion capacity of large cities have been continuously strengthened, and the geographical scope has been expanding. Administrative boundaries have been broken in terms of population growth, employment and commuting, spatial expansion, and industrial connections. Stand out.
City dominance is an indicator used to measure the regional dominance of a city. It reflects the dominance of the region in the size of the town and also indicates the concentration of various resources in the region. Generally, the largest city in a region and the second largest city economy are used. The ratio of scale is used to indicate the first degree of this largest city, and it is usually used to reflect the city's size structure and population concentration in the country or region. 2，表明结构正常、集中适当；大于2，则存在结构失衡、过度集中的趋势。 It is generally believed that the first degree of the city is less than 2, indicating that the structure is normal and the concentration is appropriate; if it is greater than 2, there is a tendency of structural imbalance and excessive concentration.
单位面积土地上的活跃人口数，可借助热力图直观展示。 Population popularity: The number of active population on a unit area of land can be visually displayed with the help of a heat map. With the advent of the "man-machine-one-machine" era, mobile phone data offers new opportunities for sensing population distribution due to its advantages of fast processing speed, low collection cost, and wide coverage. 对人口分布进行感知，并将时间粒度进一步缩小，适合研究以天为单位的人口动态分布，为进一步对人口密度动态预测提供数据基础。 Using mobile phone signaling time-space big data to perceive the population distribution and further reduce the time granularity, it is suitable for studying the dynamic distribution of population in units of days, and provides a data basis for the further prediction of population density dynamics.
基于日均的城市间来往用户量测算区域之间的联系强度。 Contact strength: Measure the strength of connections between regions based on the average daily user traffic between cities. The mobile phone signaling data reflects the real data of travel between cities. It can measure the connection flow and contact flow between cities, and analyze the spatial structure and hierarchical structure from the perspective of "contact flow". The mobile phone signaling data can be used to identify residents in the area. The travel trajectories between cities are characterized by the direction and number of people flowing, and the strength and scope of the connections between cities.
通过分析都市圈城市本地常驻人口的春节目的地，推测该群体其故乡分布。 Alien concentration: By analyzing the Spring Festival destinations of the local residents in the metropolitan area, the hometown distribution of this group is inferred.
Divide the population by using attributes such as age and place of ownership to understand the proportion of various types of population and static connections; use the spatial distribution information identified by mobile phones to measure the structural characteristics of different types of population, and deeply reflect the true situation of various types of population in the area. Through the statistics of the number of the place of ownership, you can grasp the dynamics of foreign population in the city. It can also clearly identify the number of foreign users in each district and county, and provide special evidence for understanding and analyzing the migrant population in the metropolitan area and the static migration of the population during special periods (Spring Festival, holidays) and the differences from weekdays.
综合分析上述都市圈城市人口活跃总量，常住、工作和居住人口，人口职住分布、人流往来迁徙等多个指标，定性判断都市圈城市或区域发展的未来。 Development thickness: Comprehensive analysis of the above-mentioned urban population active population, resident, working and residential population, population occupation and residence distribution, people flow and migration and other indicators, to qualitatively judge the future of urban or regional development of the metropolitan area. Aiming at the current situation and existing problems of the development of China ’s metropolitan area, based on the perspective of population big data, a multi-dimensional index based on the city ’s popularity, population heat, connection strength, and foreign concentration was constructed. People-oriented analysis and comprehensive analysis of the metropolitan area and The development level and development trend of the economic circle.
Insights into the three metropolitan areas under the second and fifth degree model
中国联通信令 时空大 数据。 1) Data source: China Unicom has ordered spatiotemporal big data.
2018年1月25-31日一周的数据，平日4月17-23日一周的数据 以及 2 019 年春节期间的数据 。 2) Data period: Data for the week of January 25-31, 2018, data for the week of April 17-23, weekdays, and data during the Spring Festival of 019 .
涵盖 京津冀、长三角和珠三角 三大都市区。 3) Data range: covering Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta .
1726万人；长三角约1560万人；珠三角约1259万人。 4) Data source description: The number of Unicom users in the three major metropolitan areas is approximately 17.26 million in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei ; approximately 15.6 million in the Yangtze River Delta; approximately 12.59 million in the Pearl River Delta. Its spatial distribution, after checking with government statistics, found that the correlation coefficient between the two exceeded 0.88, which proves that the quality of the data is accurate and can be used.
Figure 1 Correlation analysis of distribution and statistical data of Unicom users in the region
From the statistical data, the Yangtze River Delta has the highest ranking, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei ranking is moderate, which is inconsistent with the single-core and multi-core structure of the Yangtze River Delta in our intuitive understanding of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. To this end, the daily active population is used. After analyzing again, we found that Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei ’s ranking rose sharply, and even was basically the same as that of the Yangtze River Delta. There was a polarization effect, while the population activities of the Yangtze River Delta reduced its ranking to a certain extent, and there was a trickle effect. . 表 明广州 -深圳的发展更加合理。 The Pearl River Delta is below the standard line, indicating that the development of Guangzhou -Shenzhen is more reasonable.
Through thermal analysis of the grid population of the three major urban circles, we find that the shapes and characteristics of the regions affected by the three major urban circles are different. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is a Beijing single-core model, the Yangtze River Delta is polycentric, and the Pearl River Delta is a continuous trend. This is particularly evident between Guangfo and Shenzhen-Dongguan. In general, the degree of development of the urban agglomeration of the Pearl River Delta is higher than that of the Yangtze River Delta, and the Yangtze River Delta is higher than that of Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei.
对比 ( 1) First place comparison
2.14，对照统计数据显示的首位度，北京的极化效应更强 ；长三角、京津冀城市人口首位度超过 标准线 2.0，上海、北京的城市人口， 在各自区域内无城市能匹敌其量级；长三角都市区的首位度为 2.15，上海依然在区域中保持绝对领导领先优势，但对照统计数据，显示其涓滴效应明显 。 The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area has a leading degree of 2.14. Comparing the leading degree shown in the statistics, Beijing has a stronger polarization effect ; the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban population exceeds the standard line of 2.0, and the urban population of Shanghai and Beijing No city in their respective area can match its magnitude; the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area has a leading position of 2.15, and Shanghai still maintains an absolute leading advantage in the region, but the control statistics show that its trickle-down effect is obvious .
2 三大都市圈首位度对比 Figure 2 Comparison of the ranking of the three major metropolitan areas
( 2) Ordinary resident population
） 京津冀地区： 1 ) Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region:
总体 较低（ 图 3） 。 From the statistical data, there are four cities with populations above 10 million in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, including Beijing, Tianjin, Baoding, and Shijiazhuang. The urban population ranks first at 1.4, which is generally low ( Figure 3) .
4 京津冀地区首位度对比（依据信令大数据） Figure 4 Comparison of the first place in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region (based on big data of signaling)
) 长三角地区： 2 ) Yangtze River Delta region:
2.3，很高，侧面反映可能 From the statistical data, there are two cities with populations above 10 million in the Yangtze River Delta. The distribution is Shanghai and Suzhou. However, the city's population ranks first at 2.3, which is very high.
5 长三角地区首位度对比（依据统计数据） Figure 5 Comparison of the first place in the Yangtze River Delta (based on statistical data)
6 长三角地区首位度对比（依据信令大数据） Figure 6 Comparison of the first place in the Yangtze River Delta (based on signaling big data)
珠 三角地区： 3) Pearl River Delta region:
1.2，较低，在一定程度上反 From the statistical data, there are two cities with populations above 10 million in the Pearl River Delta region. The distribution is Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The first degree of urban population is 1.2.
三角地区首位度对比（依据统计数据） Figure 7 Comparison of the first place in the Pearl River Delta (based on statistical data)
珠三角地区首位度对比（依据 信令大 数据） Figure 8 Comparison of the first place in the Pearl River Delta region (based on big data in signaling )
力 是人口活动在空间上留下的足迹，是用脚记录的结果，能够反映区域的发展与活力，也能在一定程度上反映城市群的发育程度。 Population heat is the footprint left by population activities in space. It is the result of recording with feet. It can reflect the development and vitality of the region, and it can also reflect the development degree of urban agglomeration to a certain extent.
Thermal distribution of average daily population in three metropolitan areas
Figure 11 Distribution of population heat
比较 ( 1) Comparison of connection strength between the three metropolitan areas
The inter-city connections between the three major metropolitan areas vary greatly before and after the Spring Festival, further demonstrating the distribution of migrants. 京 -廊坊之间的 联系 强度很大，跟以往人们印象中的北京 -天津应该联系强不一样。 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is a strong link between Beijing and Langfang, which is different from the previous Beijing -Tianjin connection that people think . 长三角是上海 -江苏之间的强度大，因为昆山属于江苏市与上海接轨，除了正常的上午差旅大部分出行量为居住在昆山去上海工作，广-佛也是同样的道理。 In particular, Tianjin ’s newly-built Binhai New Area has almost no exchanges. The Yangtze River Delta is a strong city between Shanghai and Jiangsu, because Kunshan belongs to the city of Jiangsu and Shanghai. In addition to normal morning business trips, most of the travel is to live in Kunshan to work in Shanghai. Guang-Buddha has the same reason. The intensity of intercity exchanges also represents
Figure 13 Intensity of population linkages in the three metropolitan areas
Top20反映各个城市对的同城化现象，比如北京廊坊、广州佛山、上海苏州。 The top 20 intensities of inter-city exchanges from the three major metropolitan areas reflect the phenomenon of co-urbanization of various city pairs, such as Beijing Langfang, Guangzhou Foshan, Shanghai Suzhou. Expand people's understanding of the previous metropolitan area, and form a new small urban center in the metropolitan area. 外 ，排名第四的北京 -保定反映国家雄安新区的战略规划对人口、经济的影响。 In addition to the regular three cities , Beijing -Baoding , ranked fourth, reflects the impact of the national Xiong'an New District's strategic planning on population and economy. Intensity of people flow in Beijing and Tianjin ranks lower in the three major circles.
Figure 14 Ranking of population linkages among cities in the three major metropolitan areas \
( 2) Insight into the breakdown of the connection strength of the three metropolitan areas
1) Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area
Figure 15 Ranking of population linkages among cities in the Tianjin-Beijing-Hebei metropolitan area
津京冀都市圈 核心 城市 春节期间日均人口分布及流动对比 Figure 16 Comparison of daily average population distribution and mobility during the Spring Festival in the core cities of the Tianjin-Beijing-Hebei metropolitan area
津京冀都市圈 核心 城市 春节与平日活跃人口对比 Figure 17 Comparison of active population between Spring Festival and weekdays in the core cities of the Tianjin-Beijing-Hebei metropolitan area
）长三角地区 2 ) Yangtze River Delta
都市圈 核心 城市 人口流动 Figure 18 Population flow in the core cities of the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area
都市圈 核心 城市 春节期间日均人口分布及流动对比 Figure 19 Comparison of the average daily population distribution and mobility during the Spring Festival in the core cities of the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area
津京冀都市圈核心城市春节与平日活跃人口对比 Figure 20 Comparison of active population between Spring Festival and weekdays in the core cities of the Tianjin-Beijing-Hebei metropolitan area
）珠三角地区 3 ) Pearl River Delta Region
都市圈 核心 城市 人口流动联系强度 Figure 21 Intensity of population mobility in core cities in the Pearl River Delta metropolitan area
都市圈 核心 城市 人口流动联系强度 Figure 22 Intensity of population mobility in core cities of the Pearl River Delta metropolitan area
三大都市圈 外来浓度 总体概述 ( 1) Overview of foreign concentration in the three metropolitan areas
人口 来源地 对比 Figure 24 Comparison of population sources in metropolitan areas
4名，而长三角与京津冀地区，各重点城市，均有较大比例的人口降低。 From the ranking of the proportion of the population during the Spring Festival and weekdays, Dongguan is the region with the largest decrease in population during the Spring Festival. The Pearl River Delta region occupies the top 4 places, while the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and all key cities have a large proportion of population reduction .
三大都市圈 外来浓度细分洞察 ( 2) Subdivided Insights on the Exotic Concentrations in the Three Metropolitan Areas
1) Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area
Figure 26 Hometown Distribution of Permanent Residents in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region
2) Yangtze River Delta region
30%，主要来自于安徽北部、河南东部、山东南部以及苏北、湖北和江西等地。 In the Yangtze River Delta region, the proportion of immigrants has reached about 30%, mainly from northern Anhui, eastern Henan, southern Shandong, and northern Jiangsu, Hubei, and Jiangxi.
3) Pearl River Delta region
三角地区常住人口故乡地分布 Figure 28 Hometown Distribution of Permanent Population in the Pearl River Delta Region
From a population perspective, the Pearl River Delta is the region with the best development level. From the perspective of other indicators, the Pearl River Delta has the strongest vitality, the Yangtze River Delta has the widest multi-point radiation, and the core of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is the highest.
Based on a five-degree model analysis, we can see that the three metropolitan areas have the following characteristics:
( 1) Analysis from the development structure
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has a single-center structure model. The Yangtze River Delta has a multi-core structure with Shanghai as the leader, while the Pearl River Delta has a dual-center structure with Guangzhou and Shenzhen as the leader.
( 2) Analysis from the degree of development
From the perspective of the degree of development of the urban agglomeration, the trend of concentrated continuous development in the Pearl River Delta region is the most obvious, followed by the Yangtze River Delta, and the trend of continuous development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is not obvious.
( 3) Analysis from outside population
In terms of the proportion of foreign population in the three major urban agglomerations, the Pearl River Delta is the most prominent.
( 4) Analysis from connection degree
Judging from the degree of connection, Suzhou, Shanghai, and Guangfo have the strongest contacts, followed by Beijing and Langfang, which is speculated to be related to the development trend of urbanization. The main contacts in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are related to Beijing, while the Yangtze River Delta region In Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Nanjing and other cities, the Pearl River Delta region is mainly between Guangzhou, Foshan, Shenzhen, Dongguan and other cities.
Third, the conclusion
The metropolitan area is a key link in the overall pattern of China's urbanization. 19+2”城市群中， 基于五度模型来判断， 除长三角城市群 和珠三角城市群外，其余城市群均处于发展阶段或培育阶段，对于城市群核心的培育将是未来一段时间推进城市群工作的重点。 At present, the “ 19 + 2” urban agglomerations identified by the state are judged based on the five-degree model. Except for the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations, the rest of the urban agglomerations are in the development or cultivation stage. It is the focus of promoting urban agglomeration work in the future. At the same time, other megacities other than urban agglomerations also face a series of urban coordinated development problems. Some megacities have serious urban diseases, and it is urgently required to conduct comprehensive planning on the scale of the metropolitan area. While achieving the core city's core competitiveness improvement, it also drives The surrounding areas are developed in the same city.
mart Steps 技术，京东数字科技的大数据、人工智能、物联网等技术和 “产业X科技”能力，成为全域数据智能科技服务商。 About the author: Wisdom Footnotes Data Technology Co., Ltd., the company is a professional big data and intelligent technology company in which China Unicom Holdings, JD Digital Technology and Telefónica participate in. Based on China Unicom's data resources, the world's leading Smart Steps technology, JD Digital Big data, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things and other technologies and "industry X technology" capabilities, becoming a global data intelligent technology service provider.
This article was published in the Digital China Construction Newsletter, edited and published by the Digital Information Research Institute of the National Information Center , No. 3, 2019